The National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) says that influenza transmission is currently at a moderate level and that circulation is declining. The 2023 influenza season started on the 24th of April 2023 when the influenza detection rate calculated at a three-week moving average, breached the seasonal threshold.
Based on historical data over a number of years, the NICD has seasonal thresholds which show the number of cases ranging from low, to moderate, high, and very high rates.
Dr Sibongile Walaza, Medical Epidemiologist from the NICD, explains that seasonal thresholds help to determine the rate at which influenza is moving.
“So, before week 17, although we were seeing sporadic cases of influenza, these were not enough for us to call it the season of influenza based on the thresholds of activity we have from previous data. From week 17 onwards, we started seeing the detection rate above the threshold so the activity was low and continues to move between low and moderate.”
As of the 18th of June 2023, shown in the Week 24 report, 800 influenza cases have been detected from all surveillance programmes, which shows that 82% of those were infected with the influenza A(H3N2) strain of flu.
The majority of cases were reported from Western Cape with 280, followed by Gauteng at 225, North West at 127, KwaZulu-Natal at 90, Mpumalanga at 65, Eastern Cape at 37, and Limpopo and the Free State, at 2, respectively.
How many hospitalisations due to flu this season?
The NICD says up until now just under 4000 people were tested for influenza and 8% of them tested positive. But Walaza says there is currently no available data on the number of people hospitalised. This data will become available at the end of the flu season.
Can influenza cause death?
Yes. According to the NICD available data over the years, on average, SA sees about 12000 deaths due to influenza illnesses every year. Data collection for 2023 is still ongoing.
What does the report tell us about COVID-19?
COVID-19 detections are much lower than what we’ve seen for flu. Week 24 report shows that out of the 935 total of samples tested, 32 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Omicron is currently still the most dominant strain. For 41% of those tested, a variant could not be assigned due to a low viral load or insufficient sample- results are still pending.
How to manage severe cases of influenza?
Walaza says people should get the influenza vaccine, especially those who are at higher risk of severe illness. This includes people who have underlying conditions, the elderly over the age of 65 years, people living with HIV, and people who are immunocompromised, and pregnant women.
“We also encourage people who are sick to stay away from work as much as possible. Practise social distancing and avoid being too close to people who are sick.”
Masks as prevention and management
At the moment, there’s no mandatory recommendation for people to wear masks. However, Walaza says individuals who perceive themselves at risk of severe influenza-associated illnesses and complications may choose to wear masks especially if they are in crowded spaces, or in poorly ventilated spaces. – Health-e News
