- US-Kenya trade: Nairobi’s import bill from the U.S. dropped from Sh78.11 billion in early 2024 to Sh70.39 billion in 2025 — the first decline in five years.
- The biggest contributor to the decline is a sharp drop in aircraft imports from the U.S. Kenya’s airlines — including Kenya Airways and Astral Aviation.
- Between 2018 and 2024, U.S. imports to Kenya had more than doubled, but this year’s figures show a clear cooling off.
For the first time since 2019, Kenya’s imports from the United States have dipped, marking a turning point in US-Kenya trade. New government data shows a nearly 10 per cent drop in imports in the first half of 2025, largely due to a slowdown in aircraft orders and a cautious business investment environment.
The Numbers at a Glance
Kenya’s import bill from the U.S. dropped from Sh78.11 billion in early 2024 to Sh70.39 billion in 2025 — the first decline in five years. Between 2018 and 2024, U.S. imports to Kenya had more than doubled, but this year’s figures show a clear cooling off.
| Year | Value (KSh billions) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 31.37 | — |
| 2020 | 52.06 | +13.4% |
| 2022 | 67.91 | +7.9% |
| 2024 | 78.11 | +4.3% |
| 2025 | 70.39 | -9.8% |
Low Aircraft Orders: The Core Driver
The biggest contributor to the decline is a sharp drop in aircraft imports from the U.S. Kenya’s airlines — including Kenya Airways and Astral Aviation — appear to have postponed new plane purchases as they focus on cost control and operational efficiency.
According to trade data, large aircraft (over 15,000 kg) saw a 28.7 per cent decline in import value year-on-year. Because aircraft are so expensive, even a few delayed deliveries can cause billions in trade value to vanish from the books.
Currency and Demand Factors
Interestingly, the Kenyan shilling strengthened by nearly 8 per cent against the U.S. dollar in the first half of 2025. Normally, that would make imports cheaper, but the impact was muted by softer domestic demand and cautious investment sentiment among Kenyan firms.
Other Declining Imports
- Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)
- Machinery and industrial equipment
- Vehicles and spare parts
These categories recorded smaller declines, but together they compounded the overall drop in imports from the U.S.
Kenya’s Changing Trade Landscape
Despite the fall in U.S. imports, Kenya’s trade with other countries continues to expand. Imports from China grew by 18.4 per cent, from the UAE by 13.3 per cent, and from India and Japan as well. Among Kenya’s top five suppliers, the United States is the only one to record a decline this year.
Why It Matters
The aviation sector has an outsized impact on US-Kenya trade. When airlines delay new aircraft purchases, the effects ripple through logistics, maintenance, and tourism sectors. Kenya Airways’ ongoing restructuring and focus on profitability have further delayed new fleet expansions.
Economic Implications
Short-Term Effects
- Reduced import spending temporarily narrows Kenya’s trade deficit.
- However, lower imports of capital goods may signal slower investment activity.
Medium-Term Outlook
- Some manufacturing and logistics firms dependent on U.S. machinery may look to diversify suppliers.
- US-Kenya trade could rebound once new aircraft and capital projects are approved.
Trade and Diplomacy
The decline comes at a sensitive time. Kenya and the U.S. are negotiating a bilateral trade agreement expected to be finalized by the end of 2025. Additionally, Kenya is lobbying for a five-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants African nations duty-free access to U.S. markets.
As one trade official noted, “Temporary fluctuations don’t change the long-term vision — the U.S. remains one of Kenya’s most strategic trade partners.”
Policy Recommendations
- Boost Capital Investment: Offer tax incentives and affordable credit for firms importing technology and machinery.
- Support Aviation: Create credit guarantees and leasing options for airlines.
- Diversify Trade: Strengthen intra-African supply chains through the AfCFTA framework.
- Conclude Trade Deal: Finalize the Kenya-U.S. bilateral trade deal to stabilize commercial relations.
Outlook: A Temporary Pause, Not a Problem
Most analysts see this as a temporary slowdown. Once aviation and capital investments pick up, US-Kenya trade should bounce back. The fundamentals of the relationship remain strong, driven by mutual interests in technology, aviation, and industrial cooperation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why did Kenya’s imports from the U.S. fall in 2025?
Primarily due to fewer aircraft orders and lower capital goods demand from Kenyan industries.
Is the decline in US-Kenya trade permanent?
No. It’s considered a short-term dip that should reverse as business confidence improves.
How much did imports drop by?
Imports fell by 9.8 per cent, from Sh78.1 billion in early 2024 to Sh70.4 billion in 2025.
Which sectors were affected the most?
The aviation, manufacturing, and energy sectors saw the biggest declines in imports from the U.S.
What’s next for Kenya-U.S. trade relations?
Both countries are working on a new trade agreement and pushing for an extension of AGOA to strengthen long-term cooperation.
External Sources
• Reuters – Kenya eyes U.S. trade deal by end of 2025
• Kenya National Bureau of Statistics – Quarterly Trade Report 2025
(1US$ = KSH129)
