This month, hundreds of political electees are settling into agencies and statehouses across the country, eager to wield their fresh power and influence. Their approach to the economy, national security and the environment will determine the quality of life for Americans for years to come. As they take office, it’s important for Westerners to understand their base to gauge how well they are meeting their constituents’ demands.
Here in the West, Republicans performed better than expected among voters of color, while Democrats made inroads among some white voters. Independents were eager to put the Biden years behind them, while young voters, especially in Western swing states, were enthusiastic about the “underdog,” Vice President Kamala Harris. Ultimately, President-elect Donald Trump’s hardline stance on the economy and immigration attracted a much broader coalition than the one that narrowly elected him eight years ago.
As the incoming administration takes office, November’s election data offers a rare opportunity to examine the West’s politically engaged populace. Increasingly polarized neighborhoods, a growing number of independents and the prominence of new American citizens each offer a window into the region’s changing electorate.
Voter turnout by state
General election voter turnout, 2020 to 2024, as of Nov. 15, 2024.
Colorado has consistently had the highest voter turnout among Western states.
Californians, including hundreds of thousands of Democrats, voted in much lower numbers than in 2020.
Nevada is the only state that saw increased turnout in 2024.
Voter turnout dipped by 11% in Alaska.
Does the West lean left or right?
Total voter registration across the West as of March 2024, minus Washington and Montana, which do not publish data by party affiliation.
Dozens of districts shifted to the right, with as many as 17% more voters per county supporting the Republican Party.
Voter demographics by state
The Western electorate by age, race and gender, 2024
Anatomy of a swing state
Over the past decade, the electorate in Arizona and Nevada changed rapidly to include Gen Z voters, newly naturalized citizens and recent arrivals from out of state. In both states, the economy was cited as voters’ top priority: Nevada’s businesses were hit hard early in the pandemic, while Arizonans saw the cost of living soar.
Both Nevada and Arizona have seen thousands of Republican newcomers since 2016, including many relocating from California.
Naturalized citizens constitute 14% of eligible voters in Nevada and 9% in Arizona. More than 62,000 Arizonans and 41,000 Nevadans have been naturalized since 2020.
Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander voters comprise 30% of Nevada’s electorate combined. This year, a surprising proportion of both blocs went for Trump.
❶ Eight rural counties in Nevada achieved 80% voter turnout, while Clark County, the state’s urban center, reached only two-thirds.
❷ Voters in Apache County, which overlaps with the Navajo Nation, faced significant voting challenges this year; 175 signatures, for example, had to be corrected on tight timelines.
❸ Arizona’s Maricopa County went for Biden in 2020 with 50.3% of the vote. But Harris lost support in Latino neighborhoods in south and western Phoenix: Maricopa County flipped, 51% for Trump.
❹ Turning Point USA, a conservative nonprofit, opened an office in Phoenix in 2018, significantly boosting the state’s Republican ground game.
Is polarization easing?
Sens. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., and Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., both won in states that voted for Trump, joining a potential thaw in the extreme polarization of 2016.
Latino voters in Arizona
Latinos now represent 3 in 10 voters in Arizona.
Independent voters in Nevada
After automatic voter registration was implemented in 2023, Democrats lost a significant advantage in voter registration.
SOURCES: AP News and NORC at the University of Chicago, Ballotpedia, Brookings Institution, Edison Research, Public Policy Institute of California, The Arizona Republic, The Nevada Independent, The New York Times, University of Florida Election Lab, U.S. Immigration Policy Center at the University of California San Diego.
Data visualization by Jennifer Di-Majo/High Country News
This article appeared in the January 2025 print edition of the magazine with the headline “How the West was won.”
