Due mainly to a decline in al-Shabaab-related deaths in Somalia, there were fewer fatalities related to militant Islamist violence on the continent in 2024.
There were an estimated 18,900 fatalities linked to such violence in Africa in 2024, down from the previous year’s 23,000, the highest number on record, according to data collected by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS). However, the report said, the true numbers are likely far higher as military juntas in the Sahel, the continent’s most lethal theater for the fourth consecutive year, have imposed repressive measures on journalists, constraining reporting on militant Islamist violence.
There were an estimated 10,400 deaths linked to militant Islamist violence in the Sahel last year, accounting for 55% of all related fatalities on the continent. This was due largely to terror attacks by the Islamic State group in the Sahel, or IS Sahel, and the al-Qaida-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM).
Burkina Faso has been the Sahel’s locus of militant Islamist violence since 2019 and accounted for 61%, or 6,389, of militant Islamist-related fatalities in the region last year. JNIM in September claimed responsibility for the massacre of up to 400 people, mostly civilians, in the Burkinabe town of Barsalogho.
A 39-year-old man who lost five family members in the attack said the terrorists arrived on motorcycles around 10 a.m. They approached workers digging a trench and began shooting.
“They shot continuously, as if they had plenty of ammunition,” the man told Human Rights Watch. “People were falling like flies. I managed to climb up the trench, I don’t know how I did it, because they were shooting at anyone. … They came to exterminate us. They did not spare anyone.”
The Sahel also experienced the most episodes of violence against civilians. This was linked to the juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, as well as Russian mercenaries. There were 356 such reported incidents in 2024, resulting in 2,109 fatalities, a 36% increase over 2023.
“More civilians died due to the Sahelian and Russian security forces’ violence against civilians than by militant Islamist groups in 2024,” the ACSS reported.
David Otto, an international defense and security analyst, told the BBC the three juntas have been unable to consolidate their power, making it difficult for them to focus on terror threats.
Now called Africa Corps, the Russian mercenaries have operated as French and other international troops left the region, providing regime security to the juntas and Chad.
“In return, Russia gains access to critical resources,” wrote Zineb Riboua, program manager of the Hudson Institute’s Center for Peace and Security. “After a pro-Russia coup in Niger, for instance, the junta stripped French company Orano SA of its uranium mining rights, handing them over to Moscow.”
In Mali, 76% of reported civilian fatalities due to violence were linked to the armed forces and allied militias, according to the ACSS.
Somalia had 4,482 fatalities — or 24% of the continental total — in 2024, a 41% decrease from the previous year. Still, 2024’s numbers were 72% higher than in 2020, when the government launched an offensive against al-Shabaab.
In August, an al-Shabaab suicide bomber and gunmen attacked a busy beach in Mogadishu, the national capital, killing 32 people and wounding scores more.
“Targeting and blasting to kill 32 members from the civilian population means these Kharijites are not going to target only government centers, soldiers and officials,” Police spokesperson Abdifatah Adan Hassan said in a report by French newspaper Le Monde. Kharijites is a term Somali officials use to describe al-Shabaab.
Groups linked to the IS also were active in Somalia and have established a center for operations in autonomous Puntland State, where it expanded its territory last year after making gains against al-Shabaab. The Lake Chad Basin recorded 3,627 deaths linked to militant Islamist violence, accounting for the continent’s third-highest percentage of such deaths at 19%. This marked a 4% decline from 2023.
Northeast Nigeria remained the focus of militant Islamist group activity in the region, accounting for 66% of all violent deaths. Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province, or ISWAP, are among the area’s most active terror groups and often battle one another. In 2024, these groups continued expanding their activities in northern Cameroon, with a 51% increase in violent events over 2023, the ACSS reported. For the first time, there were more militant Islamist-linked violent events in Cameroon, which recorded 711, than in Nigeria, which accounted for 592.
Both Mozambique and North Africa had increases in violent activity and reported fatalities following steady declines in previous years. However, these theaters accounted for just 2% of deaths related to militant Islamist violence.
