When former US President Joe Biden rushed to Saudi Arabia in mid-2022 to seek help in lowering soaring oil prices, his trip backfired.
Just after he left empty handed and rebuffed, prices rocketed above $100 a barrel to the delight of the Saudis and the anger of the Americans.
It was an exceptional year for Saudi Arabia which basked in a massive fiscal surplus of nearly $28 billion and saw its economy swelling by $235 billion.
History is repeating itself as President Donald Trump arrives in the Gulf Kingdom on Tuesday. But trump comes at much more favorable conditions.
Oil prices are now hovering at just above $60 a barrel and the decline was partly of his own making and also as a result of OPEC Plus decision last week to lift output.
The lucky Trump made his first visit to Saudi Arabia as US president in 2017, when crude prices averaged around $55 a barrel.
He again met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, in June 2019 and later called him “a friend of mine”.
US-Saudi ties remained strong with Trump in the White House and perhaps Crown Prince MBS reciprocated the US President’s feelings. That was perhaps the main reason that prompted MBS to make his $600-billion US investment pledge in January.
“The recent decision by Saudi-led OPEC Plus to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day was a positive message to Trump,” said Nabil Al-Marsoumi, an energy and economics professor at Iraq’s Basra University.
“I believe this change in the strategy is intended by Saudi Arabia and other producers to establish good relations with the US under Trump, who has repeatedly called on the Saudis and other producers to lower prices,” he told Zawya Projects.
A former Saudi Aramco official wrote in the local press on Monday that very low oil prices would hurt US producers and that Trump would not want this to happen.
Faisal Al-Fayeq, ex-marketing chief in Asia and the Pacific, noted that Trump promised during his 2024 election campaign to push oil prices down from their $80 level.
“It seems that Trump now realises that very low prices are not good because they will not support his target to increase domestic crude production,” Al-Fayeq said.
Al-Fayeq referred to recent statements by the CEO of the US-based oilfield services company Liberty Energy, in which he warned that prices at $60 would not provide an encouraging environment for oil investment and that a $50 price would hamper production plans and reduce the number of oil rigs in the US.
Al-Fayeq, a former economist in OPEC, said the number of rigs did decline in the past weeks to reach 479 at the start of May from 482 in early 2025.
“Oil prices in the $70-$80 range have long been considered a balance between preserving investment and ensuring consumers are not burdened….but recent developments have revealed a more difficult reality: this range was never ideal, but rather the minimum necessary for the industry to remain on its feet,” he said.
Another Saudi analyst said he believes Trumps visit to Riyadh carries significant economic and political dimensions for the US, Saudi Arabia, and the world on the grounds it would help stabilise oil markets.
“Economically, Saudi Arabia is one of the largest players in global energy markets and key factor in the stability of the oil market. Any political or economic rapprochement between Washington and Riyadh could affect oil price and supply trends, impacting international markets and global companies,” said Jamal Banoun, a well-known Saudi economist who heads the Riyadh-based SMC Consultancy Centre.
“Furthermore, such visits often witness the signing of major economic deals, including investments in vital sectors such as technology, defense, and renewable energy, which boost capital flows and create new economic opportunities.. this visit is not merely a protocol meeting for the Saudis and Trump…it carries economic and political implications that extend far beyond the borders of both countries,” he told Zawya Projects.
(Reporting by Nadim Kawach; Editing by Anoop Menon)
(anoop.menon@lseg.com)
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