The African Country Instability Risk Index (Aciri) published by SBM Intelligence evaluated the stability of 48 African countries by considering indices like ethnic tensions, coup history, dominant ethnic groups, food security, poverty rate, debt sustainability, conflict and vulnerability, and economic diversity.
Country instability is a complex phenomenon with multiple interconnected factors. It can manifest in various ways, including political, economic, social, military, environmental, and external factors.
“The Aciri breaks down the challenges and opportunities for stakeholders in each region and offers recommendations on mitigating risks, maximizing opportunities, and making informed decisions about investing and operating in Sub-Saharan Africa,” the report noted.
The report shed light on three key factors — history, economy, geopolitics, leadership, and governance — and how they contribute to political instability in these countries.
The report also categorized countries into six stability levels — Red Watch, Critical, Warning, Vulnerable, Stable, and Safe.
A higher score on the index indicates a higher level of political risk to business and any country that scores 70 and above is categorized under Red Watch; Critical: 60-69; Warning: 50-59; Vulnerable: 40-49; Stable: 30-39: and Safe: Below 30.
A lower score shows how stable a country is, while a higher one tells the opposite.
The table, therefore, presents the top 10 African countries with a high instability risk index;
| Rank | Country | Index |
|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Sudan |
79 |
|
2 |
Burkina Faso |
71 |
|
3 |
CAR |
71 |
|
4 |
Chad |
64 |
|
5 |
Niger |
62 |
|
6 |
South Sudan |
62 |
|
7 |
DR Congo |
61 |
|
8 |
Eritrea |
61 |
|
9 |
Mali |
61 |
|
10 |
Rwanda |
59 |
Out of 48 countries, 31 reported improved performance, while the remaining 17 saw a decline.
Angola, Burundi, Chad, Togo, and Madagascar emerged as the biggest gainers. Angola’s progress was driven by a reduction in governance costs, while Madagascar’s GDP growth increased from 4.3% in 2022 to 4.4% in 2023.
Meanwhile, Botswana, Seychelles, Nigeria, Namibia, and Zimbabwe were the biggest losers. Botswana faced a nearly 2% GDP decline in Q1 2024, while Zimbabwe grappled with economic challenges, including debt and currency crises.
Nigeria, Africa’s fourth-largest economy, recorded a score drop of -6 due to the exit of foreign businesses amid a weakening currency, rising inflation, and other economic difficulties.
