Update: Beware the “Oreshnik.” The experimental missile that Russia fired at Ukraine’s Dnipro region this week was based on their RS-26 Rubezh design, according to the Pentagon. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said that the United States had received advanced warning from Russia about the launch.
Expert reax: Tom Karako from CSIS said that the missile appeared to have multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle, or MIRV. “That’s going to be a wicked hard problem to hit multiple things.” That’s also going to be hard problem for allies looking to bolster their missile defenses. Defense One’s Patrick Tucker has more.
Panning out:“Neither the Oreshnik ballistic missile strike nor Putin’s November 21 statement represent a significant inflection in Russian strike capabilities or likeliness to use a nuclear weapon,” analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War wrote in their Thursday assessment. “The West maintains credible deterrence options and Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling should not constrain Western officials from choosing to further aid Ukraine,” they added.
By the way: The U.S. military says it’s adjusting its Nuclear Deterrence Strategy. In light of new nuclear saber rattling from Russia and gathering threats from China and Iran, “adjustments to the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review may be required to sustain the ability to achieve nuclear deterrence, in light of enhanced nuclear capabilities” according to DOD News who spoke to Richard Johnson, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy.
What’s that mean? It’s not yet clear; but speaking to an audience earlier this week, Gen. Anthony Cotton, the head of U.S. STRATCOM, said “I think the days are gone in respect to just seeing things from a global combatant command perspective,” meaning that responding to nuclear threats in the future would require more collaboration across all the aspects of the military across all locations.
New: Russian sabotage campaign targets U.S. defense industrial base. The warning comes from the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, which advised U.S. companies to watch out for possible surveillance activity near their facilities and staff, as reported by The New York Times. European and U.S. officials have been warning for months of increased hybrid warfare attacks including a German arms executive for assassination, a plot uncovered in July.
Additional reading:
Welcome to this Friday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson and Patrick Tucker. Share your newsletter tips, reading recommendations, or feedback here. And if you’re not already subscribed, you can do that here. On this day in 1987, the Max Headroom signal hijacking incident affected TV broadcasts out of Chicago.
Around the Defense Department
New: The Space Force has put a defense contractor on a blacklist intended to hold companies accountable for poor performance and program delays, Space Systems Command’s Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant told reporters at an event Thursday in Washington.
It’s known as the Contractor Responsibility Watch List, and it was created in the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act to give Space Systems Command the power to stop underperforming contractors from getting new contracts, Defense One’s Audrey Decker reports. Until Thursday, the Space Force had not confirmed if it even used that list.
“There is a company on the watch list today. I won’t say who it is,” Garrant said. He did, however, say the contractor works on high-priority space programs.
Big picture: Air Force space acquisition chief Frank Calvelli has been trying to address long-delayed “problem children” programs in the Space Force, Decker writes. Those “problem children” include an RTX program called GPS Next Generation Operational Control Segment, or OCX, which are ground stations that will control the Pentagon’s constellation of GPS satellites, as well as an L3Harris space command-and-control system called Advanced Tracking and Launch Analysis System, or ATLAS.
The Space Force also recently booted RTX from a contract to develop new missile warning and tracking satellites due to cost overruns and schedule problems—an example of how the service is keeping contractors accountable, Garrant told reporters. Continue reading, here.
Developing: Outgoing Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, 82, will soon head the subcommittee that oversees military spending, at the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense. “America’s national security interests face the gravest array of threats since the Second World War,” McConnell said in a statement Thursday. “At this critical moment, a new Senate Republican majority has a responsibility to secure the future of U.S. leadership and primacy.”
McConnell has two years left in his senate term. He hasn’t yet announced whether he will run for reelection.
Opinion: It’s harder to get into the military than it is to stay there, thanks in part to different medical standards across the Defense Department. But by making them match, the Pentagon could widen its recruiting pool without undermining the force, argue Air Force Lt. Col. Kareen Hart and Taren Sylvester of the Center for a New American Security, writing Thursday in Defense One.
Reminder: Only 23 percent of youth 17 to 24 years old are qualified to serve in the military without a waiver. Just 10 percent express any interest in actually serving.
Relatedly, “Many of the assumptions that undergird the recruiting standards are outdated or simply wrong,” Hart and Sylvester write. For example, “Asthma can disqualify a potential military recruit, yet a recent study reported that 16.5 percent of Olympic athletes have asthma. Champion sprinter Noah Lyles proves that even major respiratory conditions do not preclude athletic success.”
Another thing: The authors are hardly the first to call for such reforms. “The lawmakers who drew up the FY2024 National Defense Authorization Act mandated a review of the current medical standards, screening processes, and waivers for accessions as a means of addressing recruitment shortfalls,” they write. Continue reading, here.
Trump 2.0
Meet Pam Bondi, Trump’s new attorney general nominee: With eight years as Florida’s top prosecutor, she seems better qualified than Matt Gaetz, who withdrew from the nomination process under a cloud of controversy. But as historian Heather Cox Richardson reminded her readers Friday, Bondi comes with her own questionable baggage. For example, “In March 2016, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington found that the Trump Foundation illegally donated $25,000 to support Bondi at a time when she was considering joining a lawsuit against Trump University. Her office ultimately decided not to join the lawsuit.” Bondi is also a registered lobbyist for Qatar, and falsely claimed Trump won the 2020 presidential election.
Bondi is a noted Trump loyalist, evident in her experience as a member of Trump’s first impeachment defense team, and her public support for Trump “at his New York hush money criminal trial that ended in May with a conviction on 34 felony counts,” as The Hill points out. Read more, here.
Related reading:
Etc.
Top senator calls Salt Typhoon ‘worst telecom hack in our nation’s history.’ Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., who co-chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee, issued the statement after news that the attack allowed members of the Chinese-affiliated Salt Typhoon group to listen in on audio calls, WaPo reports. The attacks even targted the Donald Trump, his running-mate J.D. Vance and Kamala Harris.
And lastly: Israel’s Netanyahu is now a wanted man, after an announcement this week from the International Criminal Court. The court issued arrest warrants for both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former military chief Yoav Gallant for alleged crimes against humanity.
Trumpland reax: Incoming National Security Advisor nominee Rep. Mike Waltz wrote on X Thursday, “Israel has lawfully defended its people & borders from genocidal terrorists. You can expect a strong response to the antisemitic bias of the ICC & UN come January.”
Related: The UN recently reported that 70 percent of the victims of Israel’s war on Hamas have been women and children. The BBC has more on that. The ICC also issued an arrest warrant for Hamas military chief Muhammad Deif, whom Israel claims to have killed in mid-July. The New York Times has more.
