Sub-Saharan Africa is the second least peaceful region of the world behind the Middle East and North Africa, with three of the ten least peaceful countries in the world found in the region.
This is according to the Global Peace Index 2024, which ranks 163 states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. The report, produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), states that Sub-Saharan Africa recorded a fall in peacefulness on the 2024 Global Peace Index (GPI), with the average score in the region deteriorating by 0.89% over the past year.
Sub-Saharan Africa faces several security crises, most notably the increase in political unrest and terrorism in the Central Sahel region. Burkina Faso has the highest terrorism impact of any country in the world, and five of the ten countries with the highest terrorism impact are in sub-Saharan Africa.
There were deteriorations in peacefulness in sub-Saharan Africa across all three GPI domains, with the largest occurring on the Ongoing Conflict domain, the IEP report explained. Conflicts in the region continued to spill across national borders, reflected by a deterioration on the external conflicts fought indicator. In the past five years, 36 of the 44 countries in the region have had some level of involvement in at least one external conflict.
Mauritius is the most peaceful country in sub-Saharan Africa for the 17th consecutive year, according to the GPI. Mauritius is also the only country in sub-Saharan Africa that has not been involved in any internal or external conflicts over the past five years.
South Sudan is the least peaceful country in the region, despite a small improvement in peacefulness over the past year. The number of deaths from internal conflict fell by 73%, from 723 deaths in 2022 to 199 in 2023. Although the country recorded improvements on both the Militarisation and Ongoing Conflict domains, the security situation remains fraught. The ongoing crisis in Sudan has also significantly impacted South Sudan, complicating the return of refugees and potentially impacting South Sudan’s economy by disrupting oil exports.
Ethiopia recorded the largest improvement in peacefulness in the region, because of the Tigray ceasefire agreement that resulted in a large fall in the number of deaths from internal conflict. There were just under conflict 2 300 deaths in 2023, down from over 100 000 in 2022, when Ethiopia was the country with the highest number of conflict deaths. However, despite the fall in the intensity of conflict, the security situation in the country remains fragile. Although a ceasefire agreement was signed in late 2022, there were reports of mass killings by multiple parties across several different regions in 2023. A state of emergency was declared in the Amhara region with the federal government intensifying its military presence and employing curfews, mass detentions, and militarised patrols.
Gabon recorded the largest deterioration in peacefulness in sub-Saharan Africa, and the third largest deterioration of any country, according to the IEP’s report. Both the Ongoing Conflict and Militarisation domains recorded significant deteriorations. The fall in peacefulness was driven by increasing internal unrest which culminated in a military coup in August 2023 that overturned the results of the presidential election. The coup ended the 56-year rule of the Bongo family. The international community, including the African Union and the United Nations condemned the coup and called for a peaceful resolution and a return to constitutional governance.
Global deterioration
The average level of global peacefulness had deteriorated once again, with 56 active conflicts raging around the world – the most since the end of the Second World War, and with fewer conflicts being resolved, the IEP reported in the 18th edition of its Global Peace Index (GPI).
2024’s results recorded the twelfth deterioration in peacefulness in the last 16 years, with 65 countries improving and 97 deteriorating in peacefulness. This is the highest number of countries to deteriorate in peacefulness in a single year since the inception of the index.
Yemen was the least peaceful country in the world in the 2024 GPI, followed by Sudan, South Sudan, Afghanistan, and Ukraine.
The report finds that conflicts are becoming more internationalised, with 92 countries now engaged in a conflict beyond their borders, the most since the inception of the GPI in 2008, complicating negotiation processes for a lasting peace and prolonging conflicts. The internationalisation of conflict is driven by increased great power competition and the rise of middle level powers, who are becoming more active in their regions.
The combination of these factors means that the likelihood of another major conflict is higher than at any time since the inception of the GPI.
The 2024 GPI says there has been a significant rise in both conflicts and battle deaths in the past two decades, with battle deaths reaching a thirty-year high in 2022. Regional conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict illustrate the devastating human cost and the complexity of modern warfare. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has seen over 2 000 fatalities per month for almost every month in the past two years, while neither side is making significant gains. The Gaza conflict has resulted in over 35 000 deaths since October 2023, resulting in a severe humanitarian crisis. These conflicts are examples of ‘forever wars’, where prolonged violence becomes seemingly endless without clear resolutions, exacerbated by external military support, asymmetric warfare, and geopolitical rivalries.
