Global stocks broadly gained on Monday in a week packed with earnings and a trio of central bank meetings that could see the United States and UK open the door to interest rate cuts, while Japan might lift borrowing costs in a step toward “normality”.
Also due this week are the U.S. jobs report for July, closely watched surveys on U.S. and global manufacturing, and euro zone gross domestic product and inflation data.
“U.S. markets are approaching crunch time. This coming week could very well set the path for markets over the near term,” Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said.
The U.S. Treasury will outline its bond sale plans for the quarter, while China’s politburo meeting could produce more stimulus following surprise rate cuts last week.
After a benign June inflation report, markets are wagering that the Federal Reserve will lay the groundwork for a September rate cut at its policy meeting on Wednesday.
Futures are fully priced for a quarter-point easing and even imply a 12% chance of 50 basis points, and have 68 basis points of easing priced in by December.
“The FOMC is set to hold steady but is likely to revise its statement to hint that a cut at the following meeting in September has become more likely,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs in a note.
“We now see the risks to the Fed path as tilted slightly to the downside of our baseline of quarterly rate cuts, though not quite as much as market pricing implies.”
The Bank of Japan also meets Wednesday and markets imply a 70% chance it will hike rates by 10 basis points to 0.2%, with some chance it could move by 15 basis points.
Investors are less sure whether the Bank of England will ease at its meeting on Thursday, with futures showing a 51% probability of a cut.
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The MSCI All-World index was up 0.17% by 10:32 a.m. ET (1432 GMT). The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 rose on Monday, buoyed by megacap stocks, while the Dow Jones fell.
Around 40% of the S&P 500 by market worth will report this week, including tech darlings Microsoft, Apple , Amazon.com and Facebook-parent Meta Platforms .
Expectations are high so any hint of disappointment will test the mega-caps’ sky-high valuations.
“With some sizeable moves implied by the options market for the individual names on the day of reporting, movement at a stock level could resonate across other plays within their sector and potentially promote volatility,” said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone.
“Company earnings don’t come much bigger than Microsoft, where the options market implies a move (higher or lower) of 4.7% – the after-market session on Tuesday could get lively.”
Stocks in Europe eased 0.22%.
In currency markets, the Japanese yen held on to its recent gains, leaving the dollar at 154.09.
The euro eased 0.48%.
In commodity markets, gold inched up 0.08%, supported by the prospect of a dovish Fed.
Oil prices fell in volatile trading, as investors remained cautious of a widening conflict in the Middle East following a rocket strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which Israel and the United States blamed on Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Brent was down 0.37% at $80.82 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 0.39% to $76.84.
(Reporting by Chris Prentice in New York, Wayne Cole in Sydney and Amanda Cooper in London; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes, Kirsten Donovan and Christina Fincher)
