The Federal Reserve should “proceed slowly” in approving further interest rate cuts as monetary policy moves closer to a neutral stance, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Friday.
Following a quarter-point rate cut last week, which Jefferson supported, he said “the current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive,” and is serving to push down inflation that available information suggests has not changed much since last year and remains above the U.S. central bank’s 2% target.
But the benchmark policy rate, currently set in the 3.75% to 4% range, is now “closer to its neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy,” Jefferson said in remarks prepared for delivery at Germany’s Bundesbank. “Given this, it makes sense to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.”
He said he would make rate cut decisions “meeting by meeting,” an approach he described as “especially prudent because it is unclear how much official data we will have before our December meeting,” given the ongoing federal government shutdown. Responding to questions after delivering his prepared remarks, Jefferson said he did feel that the data available to the Fed, including surveys conducted by the Fed itself, reports from state governments, and data provided by private firms, was sufficient for central bank officials to make decisions.
“We are not getting the flow of official data that we would normally have,” Jefferson said on the day the government would have released October payrolls data but did not, the second monthly jobs report suspended by the federal shutdown. Still “we have enough data … that we can continue to do our jobs.”
The Fed meets on December 9-10, with investors expecting another quarter point rate cut. At a press conference following the Fed meeting last week, however, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion – far from it.” Powell’s remarks reflected divided opinions among policymakers over whether a weakening job market or persistently above-target inflation poses a greater risk to the U.S. economy right now.
The rate cut was approved with dissents in favor of both tighter and looser monetary policy, an unusual outcome in a consensus-driven organization.
Jefferson’s arguments echoed those Powell raised about how the lack of jobs, inflation and other statistics during a federal shutdown now in its second month may make the Fed more cautious about reducing rates without the usual suite of economic data in hand.
But he said the information available to the Fed indicates “that the overall economic picture in the U.S. has not changed much over the past few months,” with the labor market “gradually cooling” and inflation “running at a rate similar to that of a year ago.”
The bulk of Jefferson’s comments were about the implications of artificial intelligence for the economy, and particularly for the Fed’s twin goals of stable prices and maximum employment.
He said the new technology could disrupt traditional patterns of employment, a process that may already be underway, and lead to weaker inflation if productivity increases.
But with adoption still in the early stages, “the short answer is that it is likely still too soon to tell.”
(Reporting by Howard Schneider in Washington; Editing by David Gregorio and Andrea Ricci)
