The year 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal one for Namibia’s oil and gas sector. The desert nation, whose deep waters have rapidly become one of the hottest frontiers in global energy, remains a magnet for foreign oil majors eager to stake their claim.
In just a few years, offshore discoveries have transformed Namibia from a quiet player into one of the most coveted prizes in the petroleum world.
For international operators, the choice is either here or there: commit boldly to development and reap the rewards tomorrow, or sell down stakes to those with deeper pockets and step aside. There is no room for fence‑sitting.
As the calendar turns, two European giants—Shell and TotalEnergies—are locked in a quiet but high‑stakes contest to shape the future of Namibia’s offshore exploration.
For the global energy market, the race is about who can unlock reserves quickly enough to meet demand in a world still torn between fossil fuels and the energy transition. For Shell and Total, it is about reputation, dominance, and proving who can turn seismic surveys into barrels of crude.
This leaves Namibia standing at a crossroads of opportunity and risk—two ends of the investment spectrum that both companies understand intimately and are prepared to stake billions of dollars to navigate.
While recent activity suggests both players grasp the rhythm and challenges of Namibia’s deep waters, the decisive question remains: who has the strength, strategy and staying power to lead as the country enters its most critical phase in 2026?
Where the oil story all began for Namibia
After decades of intermittent exploration, Namibia finally entered the global oil stage in 2022 when Shell announced the discovery of light oil and associated gas at the Graff‑1 exploration well under Petroleum Exploration License (PEL 39) in the deep waters of the Orange Basin.
Soon after, TotalEnergies revealed an even larger and more commercially attractive find—the Venus field in PEL 56. The high‑impact Venus drill confirmed tangible oil and associated gas, though much of it remains classified as resources pending further appraisal.
In 2024, Portuguese operator Galp Energia added another milestone with the discovery of the Mopane field, estimated to hold at least 10 billion barrels of oil in place. Mopane ranks among Namibia’s most significant recent discoveries and further cemented the country’s reputation as a rising oil frontier.
Together, these offshore breakthroughs have placed Namibia firmly on the global energy map. Analysts now see the Orange Basin as one of the world’s most promising new petroleum provinces, with reserves potentially rivaling those of Guyana and Mozambique.
Galp is currently farming out 40% of its 80% stake in Mopane, with companies such as Chevron and TotalEnergiesexpressing interest. Earlier, Shell, ExxonMobil, and Petrobras had explored acquisition opportunities without success.
Key prospects and operators in Namibia’s Orange Basin include:
- Graff (PEL 39) – operated by Shell
- Venus (PEL 56) – operated by TotalEnergies
- Mopane (PEL 83) – operated by Galp Energia
- Kharas (Kudu block) – operated by BW Energy
- Volan (PEL 85)– operated by Rhino Resources
Rhino Resources and its partners are advancing exploration in PEL 85 in a bid to deepen their understanding of the acreage for future development. Recently, the group contracted the Deepsea Mira, owned by Northern Ocean Limited, to drill its third well in the block.
Weighing stakes: Shell and TotalEnergies in Namibia
Namibia’s offshore Orange Basin has become one of the most closely watched frontiers in global energy, with TotalEnergies and Shell holding the most significant stakes thanks to their high‑impact discoveries over the past three years.
TotalEnergies: consolidating control
The French oil giant made headlines in 2022 with the discovery of the Venus field in PEL 56, regarded as one of the largest offshore finds in recent years and often compared to Guyana’s game‑changing Stabroek discovery. For much of the past three years, Venus remained TotalEnergies’ only active licensed acreage in Namibia. Drilling and flow tests have confirmed tangible oil and associated gas, though much of it is still classified as resources rather than reserves.
In December 2025, TotalEnergies struck a landmark asset swap deal with Galp. Under the agreement, TotalEnergies assumed operatorship and a 40% stake in the Mopane discovery (PEL 83), while Galp gained a 10% interest in Venus (PEL 56) and 9.39% in PEL 91.
“This strategic asset swap consolidates development control in the hands of the French major,” TotalEnergies declared after securing operatorship of both Venus and Mopane.
The company also began talks in September to extend its license in PEL 56, signaling its intent to anchor long‑term operations in Namibia.
Shell: cautious but committed
Shell, meanwhile, has pursued exploration in PEL 39, where it made the pioneering Graff discovery in 2022. Subsequent wells—La Rona and Jonker—confirmed hydrocarbons but revealed high gas content, complicating commercial viability.
In early 2025, Shell announced a $400 million write‑down on its Namibian assets, though the Ministry of Energy insisted this was “not a setback.”
Despite the financial hit, Shell remains committed, planning a major drilling campaign in 2026 with five new wells in partnership with QatarEnergy and Namibia’s national oil company, NAMCOR.
The campaign, to be executed by Northern Ocean Limited (NOL), is designed to reassess Graff, La Rona, and Jonker, gathering more reservoir data to evaluate commercial potential. Valued at $16 million, the program is scheduled to begin in April 2026 and last 45 days. Shell confirmed its plans to S&P Global Platts saying; “We are planning to rekindle exploration efforts off Namibia in 2026.”
While TotalEnergies has demonstrated bold investment appetite and deepwater dominance through aggressive appraisal and strategic asset swaps, Shell has taken a more cautious approach, focusing on proving commercial viability before committing to development.
PEL 56 vs PEL 39: Who takes the big step in 2026?
Namibia is aiming for first oil by 2030, but success will depend on overcoming infrastructure gaps, financing challenges, and technical hurdles. Two global energy giants—TotalEnergies and Shell—are charting different paths in the Orange Basin, and 2026 may prove decisive in determining who takes the lead.
TotalEnergies, operator of the Venus discovery in PEL 56, has the technical expertise to have already moved forward with a final investment decision (FID).
Yet regulatory uncertainty has slowed progress. Namibia, still new to the oil industry, lacks deep regulatory experience, and TotalEnergies has pressed for concrete legal and fiscal frameworks to ensure clarity and mutual understanding.
“You’re dealing with a country that is new to the oil industry, so alignment and mutual understanding are crucial,” CEO Patrick Pouyanné explained in July, when asked why Venus was being delayed.
“I want to avoid a situation where a dispute arises later because the Namibian authorities feel they weren’t fully informed or didn’t fully understand the project. It’s better to take the time at the beginning to ensure everything is clear.”
Despite the delays, TotalEnergies expects to take an FID between Q3 and Q4 of 2026, with first oil targeted around 2029. The company’s initial production goal is 150,000 barrels per day, underscoring its bold appetite for investment and deepwater dominance.
Shell, by contrast, is preparing a five‑well drilling campaign in PEL 39 beginning in Q2 2026, but has not committed to an FID on its Graff prospect.
In August 2025, Shell signaled that Namibia was no longer one of its top priorities for exploration spending, though it would continue to monitor developments and position itself if commercial opportunities emerged.
The contrast is striking: Shell appears cautious, steady, and focused on proving commercial viability, while TotalEnergies is aggressively appraising Venus with the aim of fast‑tracking development.
Whether PEL 56 or PEL 39 becomes the defining story of 2026 will depend on how each company interprets its position and the regulatory environment.
What is clear, however, is that Namibia closes 2025 with its offshore oil narrative entering a far more serious and consequential phase in the year ahead.
How ready is the Namibian government?
Namibia stands at a critical juncture as it prepares for the development of the Venus oil field, one of the most significant discoveries in the Orange Basin.
Recognizing both the opportunities and challenges ahead, the government has begun exploring a suite of financial incentives to ensure the project’s successful takeoff.
Kornelia Shilunga, Special Adviser and Head of the Upstream Petroleum Unit in the Presidency, explained that the administration is considering “financing options such as credit support instruments and partnerships with international lending institutions, to address challenges faced by local enterprises in accessing capital.”
She emphasized that the government fully understands the complexities and high costs associated with Venus, operated by TotalEnergies, and is determined to provide the necessary support.
Institutional stability has also been reinforced.
In a decisive move, President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah appointed Modestus Amutse as Namibia’s substantive Minister of Industries, Mines and Energy.
This appointment ends months of uncertainty under interim management, which critics argued had concentrated too much power in the presidency and risked undermining transparency and investor confidence.
The energy portfolio is Namibia’s most strategic, with the minister traditionally responsible for regulating upstream activities, negotiating production-sharing agreements, and shaping the regulatory frameworks that govern international oil players.
Amutse’s appointment signals a renewed commitment to due diligence and governance at a time when investor confidence is paramount.
Looking ahead, 2026 will be a defining year for Namibia’s oil industry. Appraisal drilling, final investment decisions and government policy will determine not only the pace of development but also which players ultimately take the lead in transforming Namibia into a deepwater energy hub.
