Serie A betting preview, odds, predictions: Can Napoli repeat? Plus what teams should finish in the top 4

Chaos is the perfect word to summarize Serie A. For four straight seasons, we have had a different winner in this league and the past two were very big surprises to bettors. With Napoli taking home its first league title in 33 years being the main one, most books didn’t even have the club as a favorite for a top four position let alone the Scudetto.

This year looks to be more of the same with the top seven teams all looking like contenders, but also with notable flaws to overcome. Let’s take a look at what to expect from one of the most balanced top leagues in Europe.

Top four race

Probably the most intriguing of Serie A wagers this coming season, top four is always the best race within the league and this year is no different with at least seven clubs that have a strong chance at playing Champions League football in 2024.

Serie A top four odds

Odds from BetMGM.

Let’s go through the favorites first. Inter, Napoli and Juventus are not worth a bet whatsoever.

Inter and Napoli are fantastic sides and are rightfully the favorites but taking either at their respective numbers would be far too risky. If you loved them enough maybe try a futures parlay but as a single wager, it is not worth placing anything in my opinion.

All three are respectable sides, considering Juventus were technically top four last season until a points deduction was handed down. Not being in Europe will be a distinct advantage for the Bianconeri. However, they have been getting weaker all around with Leonardo Bonucci on the way out as well as other talent. It will be harder to give the benefit of the doubt to this side at a -200 (1-to-2) line.

Now we head to the more interesting numbers and that is Milan through Atalanta.

Milan is a very interesting -135 number despite being in the Champions League three years in a row. There has been a massive squad overhaul with the sale of Sandro Tonali at the forefront. Not only that, but they have seen directors Paolo Maldini and Ricky Massara leave the club. This is a team that still holds onto Rafael Leão, Théo Hernandez and Mike Maignan, but they will have to be carried by new signings like Tijjani Reijnders, Christian Pulisic and Samuel Chukwueze.

Depth is lacking in certain areas, especially defensively, which will be a massive problem for them with such young defenders. I do think Milan will finish in the top four, but I would wait on them playing out their very difficult schedule first to see a better number for them. They play Napoli, Juventus, Roma, Lazio and Inter all by Matchday 10. If the Rossoneri slip up at that moment you could see this number enter the plus-money territory, so wait on them.

Both Roman clubs are right where they have been since José Mourinho’s return to Serie A. The bookies favor José, but Lazio who are arguably more talented, sit behind them. Losing Tammy Abraham to a knee injury is a massive blow for Roma and not having a concrete replacement midway through August is scary. Signing Leandro Paredes and Renato Sanches are big question marks considering their injury history. Couple that with more reliance on Paulo Dybala and I can easily see them being worse than this +110 number they have been given.

Meanwhile, Lazio lost one of its best players of the 21st century in Sergej Milinković-Savić, but have since reinvested the money in Taty Castellanos (MLS Golden Boot winner in 2021), Daichi Kamada, Nicolò Rovella and others. With Sarri he has a propensity to not rotate as much throughout a season and with Champions League football being involved this go around there is a lot of hesitancy throughout Serie A bettors regarding Lazio placing inside the top four.

I think the Biancocelesti represent the second-best bet in this market. The defense was immense last season and basically returns the same core and Lazio still has one of the best Serie A goalscorers this century in Ciro Immobile. Lazio is better value than Roma here.

To round out the competitors for this spot we have Atalanta, which has had one crazy summer involving player sales (Rasmus Højlund to Manchester United, Jérémie Boga to Nice, Merih Demiral to Al-Ahli, Sam Lammers to Rangers and Joakim Mæhle to Wolsfburg). Those sales funded the acquisitions of Gianluca Scamacca, El Bilal Touré and Charles De Ketelaere.

Scamacca has had a better history in Serie A compared to Højlund so replacing that output won’t be difficult. With Teun Koopmeiners being one of Serie A’s best midfielders you can easily see them taking a new step forward. Odds of +250 (5-to-2) for a manager like Gian Piero Gasperini who has been in the Champions League before isn’t something audacious to consider.

It can be argued this will be more of a transitional year with Duván Zapata and Luis Muriel being ousted within the squad, but the talent is undeniable. They finished just six points off of last year’s top four and this time they have an even more reliable attack to get them over the hump.

As I stated earlier this market is wide open and Atalanta is the team with the best value on the board, either grab them now or wait a few weeks into the season to get a better number but this is the way to go if you want a bigger return.

Relegation

This is another market I consider to be weak for this upcoming season. Frosinone coming in at -400 (1-to-4) at BetMGM is something nobody should touch. I have seen it as low as -250 in other places.

If I took a gamble on a side for this coming season it would be Salernitana at +300 (3-to-1). This side has escaped the drop two seasons in a row now, but was saved by Boulaye Dia’s 16 goals last season. Salernitana was 11 points above relegation last season with one of Serie A’s breakout performers, which is great, but if regression comes through (it’s likely) Salernitana will then be struggling throughout this campaign. At the +300 number, this represents my favorite value.

Scudetto

Serie A is as wide open as it’s ever been. There are plenty of reasons for and against the top favorites for this season. Napoli’s campaign is likely unrepeatable at that level after losing Kim Min-jae to Bayern and having a new manager in Rudi Garcia taking over for Luciano Spalletti. Factor in the Africa Cup of Nations coming up (where Victor Osimhen is expected to play for Nigeria) and Napoli won’t have the same continuity that was provided through most of last season.

Serie A league winner odds

That said, Napoli’s midfield is one of the best two in the league, at worst. They also have the best attacking combination in the league with Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The +250 (5-to-2) odds offer value. It’s my favorite bet out of all the Scudetto contenders.

Inter at +175 (7-to-4) makes Napoli all the more enticing. Inter should have worries about its defense after Milan Škriniar moved to PSG. No Romelu Lukaku or Edin Džeko in the attack and goalkeeper André Onana is now with Manchester United. A switch to Marcus Thuram in the attack Marko Arnautović and Yann Sommer in goal is a downgrade overall.

On paper, this squad can easily lift its 20th league title, but when it comes to numbers Inter is simply being overvalued after a Serie A campaign that saw it lose a shocking 12 matches. Inter at +175 is my least favorite bet out of all the Scudetto contenders. If you want to pick them eventually I highly suggest waiting until the winter to reconsider them.

Juventus, Milan, Roma and Lazio all round out the other options for the title, let’s quickly go through each and sum up why they will fall short or lack value.

Juventus +375 (15-to-4): Playing once a week is a massive advantage, but losing some players while relying upon Federico Chiesa and Dušan Vlahović to return to peak form is a potential big ask. Factor that in with a thinner defense and it might be hard to see the Bianconeri overtake a Napoli or Inter. They will feast and scoop three points against the inferior squads but their lack of big game players is too worrying to see this.

AC Milan +400 (4-to-1): A shaky defense and lack of a true defensive midfielder will hurt this team in the long run. No Ismaël Bennacer until February and a squad overhaul will take some time for the Rossoneri. The odds will get longer after a really difficult schedule to start the season so even if you were high on Milan, you can get probably them at an even better number around Matchday 10. The preseason number isn’t worth the bite at this line.

Roma (+1100, 11-to-1) and Lazio (+1400, 14-to-1): The capital clubs have experienced managers and good teams on paper regarding their starting elevens, but having the depth and talent to play multiple competitions to win their first Scudetto in two decades? Sorry guys, but maybe another year.

For me, Napoli repeat as champions. Let us know your favorite bets for this coming season!

(Photo of Victor Osimhen: Giuseppe Bellini / Getty Images)