The world is becoming less stable, less orderly, and far more dangerous, putting South Africa at risk of being pushed around by both major powers and minor continental ones. South Africa and other nations cannot rely on alliances, meaning the country needs to rebuild its hard power capabilities, including the SA National Defence Force (SANDF).
This is according to African Defence Review Director Darren Olivier, who is calling for a substantial investment in defence to meet the new challenges facing South Africa and the world.
Following the election of Donald Trump and the ramifications of his foreign policy, “these have been the weeks when decades happen,” Olivier stated. He believes the post-World War II global order is collapsing, “and with it the rules-based structure that allowed South Africa to focus on diplomacy and peace operations. From here on, hard power matters more.”
Olivier pointed out that with three United Nations Security Council (UNSC) permanent members (China, Russia and the United States) now openly embracing power politics, and a seeming return to imperialism and even colonialism, over international law, the Council is being “neutered” as a guarantor of global stability—echoing the League of Nations’ collapse before World War II.
“Meanwhile, in Africa, South Africa has just learnt the very painful lesson in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) that the African Peace and Security Architecture has failed,” Olivier stated in reference to Rwandan-backed M23 rebels capturing Goma and Bukavu in the eastern DRC after SADC troops – including those from South Africa – failed to stop them.
“Neither the African Union, Southern African Development Community, the East African Community, or the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region have been able to stop what’s happening or free trapped SADC troops,” he said.
“The same is going to be true globally, soon. South Africa cannot rely on appealing to the International Court of Justice, International Criminal Court, or UNSC, if things go as I fear and believe they will. South Africa will find them rendered irrelevant, their decisions unenforceable, and the major powers uninterested in protecting South Africa.”
He believes that South Africa cannot rely on its alliances, as none provide the necessary guarantees. The United States is no longer a reliable partner for anyone, while Russia and China provide only minimal support and have dropped South Africa when it mattered. The European Union has been steadfast, but it will be forced to turn inward for a bit, Oliviers predicts, as the EU reacts to the loss of US support.
“South Africa started the millennium in the best position of any sub-Saharan African country for a new multipolar realist exercise of hard power, both economically and militarily. In the 25 years since it has allowed the former strength to flounder and almost destroyed the latter,” Olivier cautioned.
“The way things are progressing, both globally and continentally, the odds of South Africa being forced to become involved in a serious war not of its own choosing within the next 20 years is becoming not just more possible, but increasingly likely. Yet South Africa is far from ready.”
He believes South Africa needs to be a lot more serious and clearsighted about the risks facing it in this new, less stable, less orderly world. “It is not in a strong position to handle it, and will be pushed around by not only major powers but minor continental ones too if nothing changes.”
“This is the time to rebuild South Africa’s hard power capabilities, both economic and military, ensuring that it’s militarily strong enough to protect itself and its interests in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. This is going to require substantial investment in defence.
“And in a new world dominated by realism, South Africa can no longer rely on alliances shaped by shared values or trade. It will have to win and retain friends by being strong enough to be useful to them, whether as a regional hegemon ensuring stability or an ally in coalitions.
“To survive in this new world, South Africa has to start now. Rebuilding the SANDF to even just the same level of capability it had in the mid-2000s, which was already understrength, will take hundreds of billions of Rand and at least 15-20 years. There’s no time to wait,” he urged.
Olivier suggests investing in core multi-role capabilities; building up ordnance, parts, and consumables supply lines and stocks; investing in training and professional development; and building institutes and processes that help the SANDF to adapt rapidly to new technology or threats.
