Want to put the Mets’ payment of approximately $36 million to the Rangers in the Max Scherzer trade in perspective?
The Mets included that amount along with Scherzer to acquire infield prospect Luisangel Acuña, who could turn out to be another Ozzie Albies. The Braves gave the actual Albies less than that when they signed him to a seven-year, $35 million contract in 2019.
If you’re not a Mets fan, you’re surely appalled that Steve Cohen continues to spend like no owner in major-league history. But here’s the truly crazy part: The Mets actually are saving money in the Scherzer trade.
Scherzer is owed nearly $15 million for the rest of the season. The Rangers, according to sources briefed on the deal’s financial breakdown, are covering about $6 million of that amount. Next season, Scherzer is owed $43.33 million, and the Rangers will pay roughly $16.5 million of that.
Using those approximate numbers, the Mets will save about $9 million in salary and $8 million in luxury tax this season as they pay a 90 percent penalty for every dollar they spend over the highest threshold. Next season, with the roughly $16.5 million savings in Scherzer’s salary and the highest penalty rate rising to 110 percent, they would avoid more than $18 million in tax.
This all assumes the Mets again will be over the highest threshold, but with Cohen that’s a good assumption, even if the Mets continue on this path and trade Justin Verlander, too. Every dollar they would include in that trade, just like every dollar they included in the Scherzer deal, would count against their luxury-tax payroll.
Luisangel Acuña (Ben Ludeman / Getty Images)
A trade of Verlander would raise the question of who will pitch for the Mets next week, much less next season, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Whatever Cohen does next, he can rebuild his rotation by plowing into free agency all over again this offseason, be it for Julio Urías, Aaron Nola or, ahem, Shohei Ohtani.
The David Robertson deal also saved the Mets money, about $3.5 million in salary and $3.2 million in tax, while netting two additional high-ceiling prospects from the Marlins. Even for billionaires, every dollar counts, right? And it seems a reasonable bet Cohen will be reinvesting every one of those dollars and millions more into the 2024 roster.
It’s the all-time money whip, but it has yet to get the Mets anywhere near the World Series title Cohen said he wanted within three to five years when he took control of the team in Jan. 2021. And while the Mets are effectively buying prospects to accelerate the restoration of their farm system, there is no guarantee these kids will turn out as good as club officials project.
How much did it actually cost the Mets to get Acuña? Difficult to say, because the Rangers are not just getting money in the trade, they’re also getting Scherzer. And calculating what Scherzer will be worth to the Rangers is all but impossible. No one knows if he will stay healthy. No one knows how he will perform.
Scherzer’s ERA+ this season is just above league average. He has produced 0.9 fWAR, putting him on track to finish with about 1.4. Fangraphs estimates 1 WAR to be worth about $8 million in free agency, but some analysts believe the number is closer to $9 million or $10 million. So Scherzer thus far projects to be a $12 million to $14 million pitcher in 2023. If he finishes strong, maybe $15 million or more.
At his best, Scherzer is worth considerably more than that, if not $43.33 million. But he has had side and back issues this season, and he had oblique issues last season. The Rangers, who presumably will want him to start Game 1 of a playoff series, evidently overlooked how he wore down the last two Octobers.
However you calculate it, Scherzer’s value to the Rangers is not $0, so Acuña is not valued at $36 million. But the price of a top 100 prospect — Acuña was No. 87 in Baseball America’s in-season update, and No. 58 in the ranking by The Athletic’s Keith Law — might indeed be in the tens of millions.
Cohen was willing to pay such a price for Acuña. He might be willing to pay it again in a comparable return for Verlander. But the Astros, Verlander’s previous club and perhaps the one for which he is most willing to waive his no-trade clause, did not place a single player in BA’s latest top 100. So unless Verlander is willing to go elsewhere, maybe a deal doesn’t happen and he remains with the Mets next season. For $43.33 million at age 41.
It’s only money. Spend some, save some, spend some more.
(Top photo of Steve Cohen: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
