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Friction Score Methodology — How we calculate 62/100 Auditable

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Port friction · NTB scores · FX volatility · PAPSS intelligence · Vessel tracking · Narrative flags · Cost calculator

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Apapa friction91/100

Mombasa dwell5.1 days

PAPSS statusOperational

Red Sea surchargeActive +$180

Tema vs Apapa-$85/TEU

Durban recovery+18% productivity

AfCFTA relief0-15%

Narrative flags9 active

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Try: Apapa congestion Mombasa Kenya Durban Tema vs Apapa 📊 90-Day Chart: Apapa vs DANGCEM 🥧 Port market share 📈 6-month corridor trend 📊 Port friction ranking 📉 Scatter: Friction vs DANGCEM 💰 PAPSS Saving Calculator Alexandria

▶ Querying port friction database...

○ Fetching FX volatility index...

○ Checking PAPSS settlement corridors...

○ Running narrative friction scan...

○ Calculating total landed cost...

Lagos → Cairo · Cocoa export · 20MT · Q2 2026 Today 06:14 WAT

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Friction score breakdown — 62/100 composite

Port friction

91 ×0.40

FX volatility

72 ×0.30

NTB friction

28 ×0.20

Narrative gap

70 ×0.10

Sources: Africa Ports & Ships · UNCTAD LSCI · CBN/Afreximbank FX · tradebarriers.africa · ROAD-1 NFF engine · Last updated: 2h ago

Corridor friction analysis Sea via Suez · Apapa → Port Said → Cairo

62 Composite friction / 100

Port friction

91/100

Apapa · 34 vessel queue · 5.8d avg

FX volatility

High — 9.2%

EGP/NGN SWIFT spread (CBN data)

AfCFTA relief

-$210

Cocoa HS 1801 · Form A required

Historical trend — Apapa friction score

Q4 2023

Q1 2024

103

Oct 2024 peak

Q1 2025

Q3 2025

Now ↑3

Friction is rising vs last quarter. Worse than Q4 2023 baseline. Source: Africa Ports & Ships historical index.

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Primary friction driver

FX volatility on EGP/NGN corridor — current SWIFT spread of 9.2% is the largest controllable cost variable. At 20MT cocoa, this translates to $180–$345 in pure settlement friction, exceeding the Red Sea surcharge of $180.

PAPSS Intelligence

PAPSS settlement available — estimated saving 9–14% on FX conversion

Standard SWIFT USD settlement on NGN→EGP route carries 3.8% bank spread + 5.4% parallel rate risk = effective 9.2% FX drag. PAPSS settles at interbank rate. Setup time: 5–10 business days for new accounts. Both counterparties need approved PAPSS accounts before first transaction.

↑ Estimated PAPSS saving: $166–$256 on 20MT (85% probability based on Q1-Q2 2026 spread data)

Narrative Friction Flag Lagos–Cairo · Q2 2026

Friction Flag

Western financial media consistently frames the Nigeria–Egypt trade corridor as nonviable due to currency instability, deterring capital allocation and inflating risk premiums on NGN and EGP-denominated transactions.

Data Correction

Afreximbank 2024 Intra-African Trade Report records Nigeria–Egypt bilateral trade growing 18% YoY to $2.4B. PAPSS now settles NGN/EGP at interbank rate T+1. The FX barrier is operationally resolved for PAPSS-connected institutions.

Corridor Impact

SMEs routing via Rotterdam or Piraeus add 12–18 days and $800–$1,200/TEU in avoidable cost. DFI financing gap on Suez-route corridor estimated at $340M+ suppressed by narrative risk.

Narrative distortion measurement

Media sentiment

7/10

Lloyd's List, Bloomberg NLP Q2 2026

Insurance premium delta

8/10

Carriers charge 15-22% premium vs 6-8% fundamental risk

Routing inefficiency

6/10

Est. 18% of eligible cargo routes via European hubs unnecessarily

DFI capital gap

7/10

$340M+ approved but undeployed (Afreximbank 2024)

Composite narrative friction score 7/10

High distortion · Traceable capital impact · Score = avg of 4 dimensions above

Predictor recommendation — with confidence intervals

Use sea route via Suez (saves $1,370 vs Sahel road — high confidence, 90%+ based on 24-month freight index data). Apply for AfCFTA Form A before shipment — $210 tariff relief requires pre-shipment certification, 5–7 business days lead time. Route through Tema vs Apapa — $85/TEU saving, 1.2 days faster (moderate confidence; Tema yard can fill rapidly). Switch to PAPSS settlement if both parties have active accounts — estimated $166–$256 saving (85% probability interval based on Q1–Q2 2026 CBN/Afreximbank spread data). Note: if counterparty does not yet have PAPSS account, allow 5–10 business days for setup. In the interim, use USD invoicing with forward FX contract.

Risk warnings

PAPSS requires both parties to have approved accounts (setup: 5-10 business days). Tema routing adds 1 day in transit — verify your buyer's delivery window first. AfCFTA Form A must be applied before shipment leaves origin — retroactive claims are rejected. Red Sea surcharge active; routing via Cape of Good Hope adds 12-14 days and approximately $340/TEU additional cost.

$1,370Sea vs road (90% conf.)

$166–256PAPSS saving (85% conf.)

$210AfCFTA tariff relief

$85Tema vs Apapa

Total landed cost calculator — primary output Sea via Suez + PAPSS settlement vs alternatives

Recommended route

Sea via Suez + Tema + PAPSS

$3,574

Base freight (20MT)$2,200

Tema port handling$255

Red Sea surcharge+$180

AfCFTA tariff relief-$210

Egypt customs + clearance$520

FX — PAPSS XOF/EGP$92 (vs $358 SWIFT)

Saves $1,636 vs worst option

Alternative 1

Sea via Suez + Apapa + SWIFT

$4,238

Base freight (20MT)$2,200

Apapa port handling$340

Red Sea surcharge+$180

No AfCFTA (no Form A)+$210

Egypt customs + clearance$520

FX — SWIFT spread 9.2%$788

Avoid

Sahel road via Niger

$5,210

Road freight (20MT)$3,800

Niger NTB levies$320

Agadez border crossing$280

Egypt entry + clearance$520

FX — SWIFT$290

Transit time: 28-36 days+12-22 days

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Tema port alternative44/100

Utilization: 68% · Clearance: 2.1 days · ECOWAS 91% · AfDB fastest-improving 2024

$85 lower handling + 1.2 days faster vs Apapa. Trend: improving. Risk: yard filling faster in Q2 2026.

Sahel road via Niger82/100

Niger NTB: 78 · Agadez delays: 3.8 days avg · Road cost: $5,210

Avoid. $1,636 more expensive than recommended route. NTB friction trending worse since Q3 2025.

ROAD-1 provides intelligence, not financial or legal advice. Confidence intervals are probabilistic estimates based on historical spread data, not guarantees. Verify all trade decisions with licensed customs brokers, freight forwarders, and legal professionals before execution. Data sources: UNCTAD LSCI, World Bank, Afreximbank, Africa Ports & Ships, Kuehne+Nagel, PAPSS, AfDB, CBN, SARB, CBK, tradebarriers.africa. Scoring methodology published above. Pipeline: Today WAT.

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NTB Heatmap · West Africa · Free preview (3 of 54 corridors)

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All 54 AfCFTA corridors with live border delay, FX overlays, PAPSS corridors, vessel tracking, and Narrative Friction Flags with measurement framework.

Corridor	Mode	NTB score	FX risk	Avg delay	Trend
Lagos → Accra	Road	87	GHS/NGN moderate	4.2 days	↑3 vs Q4
Accra → Abidjan	Road	64	GHS/XOF low	2.8 days	↓4 improving
Dakar → Bamako	Road/Rail	28	XOF stable	1.1 days	Stable
Lagos → Cotonou	Road	██	██████	████	███
Apapa → Douala	Sea	██	██████	████	███

3 of 54 corridors shown · Trend column shows vs prior quarter · Pro unlocks all corridors, vessel tracking, and full methodology · $49/mo →

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