Yemen’s Houthi rebels are increasing their support of al-Shabaab in Somalia, potentially increasing security risks along commercial Middle Eastern shipping routes.
That is according to a March report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which said the partnership could increase al-Shabaab’s ability to attack vessels with drones or missiles. The Houthis also might be providing the terror group with military training.
“The Houthis intend to supply al-Shabaab with more advanced weaponry that might enable them to target shipping in the Gulf of Aden,” a senior aide to the leader of Yemen’s National Resistance Front said in the report.
The Houthis, backed by Iran, and al-Shabaab are affiliated with al-Qaida. Al-Shabaab sees Houthi-made drones and Iranian-made weapons as a way to regain control of the coast. The Houthis see their alliance with al-Shabaab as a way to project their influence, and, by extension, Iran’s influence across the Red Sea and into the Horn of Africa, experts say.
Although there is no direct evidence yet of significant transfers of weapons from the Houthis to al-Shabaab, fresh supplies of drones and anti-ship missiles could enable al-Shabaab to launch more destructive attacks, according to the CSIS.
“The Houthis are evaluating the available options to carry out attacks at sea from the Somali coast, in order to expand the scope of their area of operations [by working with al-Shabaab],” the Panel of Experts on Yemen, citing confidential sources, told the United Nations Security Council in a report in October 2024.
Red Sea Threat
Coordinated attacks between the Houthis and al-Shabaab against ships in the Gulf of Aden and Arabian Sea also could complicate the Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping, according to The Soufan Center. This would further raise maritime shipping costs.
The Houthis have launched missiles and drones at more than 130 commercial ships transiting the chokepoint at the Bab el-Mandeb strait where the Red Sea meets the Gulf of Aden. The attacks caused shipping through the Red Sea to drop by about half between November 2023 and November 2024, according to the shipping news website Lloyd’s List. Commercial ships now take a longer route around the Horn of Africa and Southern Africa.
As the Red Sea turmoil unfolded, piracy, long-dormant in Somali waters, surged in December 2023 after a six-year lull in major attacks. Analysts believe al-Shabaab reached a deal to provide protection to pirates in exchange for 30% of all ransom proceeds and a cut of any loot, Emirati newspaper The National reported.
The International Maritime Bureau documented eight Somali piracy incidents last year, including the November 2024 hijacking of a Chinese trawler that was held captive for seven weeks. The bureau recorded three Somali piracy incidents between February and March 2025.
Al-Shabaab Growing ‘More Capable’
The CSIS report characterized al-Shabaab as a de facto state that would “likely grow more capable” this year. Besides support from the Houthis, al-Shabaab is likely to face decreased military pressure, as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia has been replaced by the smaller African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia.
Somali and international forces have made gains against al-Shabaab, but the terror group is resilient and recently recaptured territory it lost to government forces. On April 16, for example, al-Shabaab reclaimed the strategic town of Aboorey after a fierce two-week battle. It also took back the town of Adan Yabaal.
“The combination of a weaker international force and a stalled government offensive will decrease the pressure on Al Shabaab and allow it to increase its violent activities in 2025,” the report said.
