A series of clean energy projects at the Grangemouth refinery could create around 800 jobs over the next 15 years, according to the Project Willow summary.
The £1.5 million feasibility study, published today, also stated that this figure could potentially rise to 1,200.
The document outlines nine potential projects that could be developed at the site, helping secure a long-term industrial future for the refinery
These projects are divided into three tracks. In the waste category, the proposed projects are hydrothermal upgrading (breaking down hard-to-recycle plastics), chemical plastics recycling and ABE biorefining (breaking down waste material).
In the bio-feedstock track, Grangemouth could gain the capacity to break down Scottish timber into bioethanol, add anaerobic digestion of bioresources and digestate pyrolysis, or convert Scottish cover crops into sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel using low-carbon hydrogen.
The third category is offshore wind conduit to replace natural gas with hydrogen, using low-carbon hydrogen to produce methanol and convert it to sustainable aviation fuel, and producing low-carbon ammonia from hydrogen for shipping and chemicals.
The Project Willow report envisions that the Grangemouth overhaul could generate £600-700m of total annual gross value add for the Scottish economy by 2040 under its base case, potentially rising to £1-2bn.
The developments could also reduce Scotland’s greenhouse gas emissions by 3.5-6 mtpa. However, this will require around £3.5bn of capital investment from the private sector to achieve – and, according to the report, the maximum capex outlays for all projects and growth scenarios would be over £8bn.
Under Project Willow’s timelines, the first projects – hydrothermal plastic recycling, dissolution plastics recycling and anaerobic digestion – could come online by 2028.
Later projects, such as e-ammonia, e-methanol and methanol to jet fuel, could come online by 2035, with the final phase of bioethanol generation entering operations by 2039.
Grangemouth’s future
First Minister John Swinney said: “We will leave no stone unturned in order to secure the future of the Grangemouth refinery site, and the Scottish government has already committed or invested a total of £87m to help do so.
“Grangemouth is home to over a century of industrial expertise and employs thousands of highly skilled workers, placing the site at a massive competitive advantage and creating a unique opportunity for investors.
“Everyone working at Grangemouth’s refinery – and in the wider industrial cluster – is a valued employee with skills that are key to Scotland’s economic and net-zero future.”
Operated by PetroIneos, a joint venture between Ineos and PetroChina, the refinery was due to be shut in the second quarter of this year as part of plans to convert it to a fuel import and distribution terminal.
The plan is backed by £25m from the Scottish government and £200m from the UK government
With the first wave of redundancies at Grangemouth coming last months, around 400 jobs were set to be cut at the site over the next three to 18 months.
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham warned that protecting jobs should be the main priority for developing Grangemouth.
“Project Willow was created by Petroineos as a fig leaf to justify its act of industrial vandalism of shutting the refinery and axing jobs. It asked the wrong questions and then failed to provide the answers that Grangemouth refinery workers need,” she said.
“The UK and Scottish governments need to act rapidly to protect skilled, well-paid employment. There are projects like SAF production, which can be swiftly enacted to protect jobs, and those opportunities must not be lost. This would pave the way for the UK to become a world leader in green aviation.”
As part of delivering the full range of projects, the report also called for a decision on the Acorn Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) development, which could provide CO2 feedstocks for the facility.
Plan for change
UK energy minister Michael Shanks said: “We will build on Grangemouth’s expertise and industrial heritage to attract investors, secure a long-term clean energy future, and deliver on our Plan for Change.”
The next steps include identifying initial partners to participate in projects and develop detailed business plans for the initial projects.
Shanks and acting cabinet secretary for net zero and energy, Gillian Martin, have co-chaired a meeting of the Grangemouth Future Industry Board with local industry leaders, Falkirk Council, trade bodies and unions.
In addition, Scottish Enterprise and the UK government’s Office for Investment will work with PetroIneos to market the proposals set out in Project Willow and seek investor interest.
Scottish Enterprise managing director for innovation and investment Jane Martin welcome the publication of the report, saying: “Project Willow has identified an opportunity to align Scotland’s industrial regeneration with government climate obligations, and to demonstrate a pathway to green energy while securing new jobs and growth.”
She added: “SE has a clear ambition to help create the best possible location, infrastructure and enabling environment for success, and to attract investors and industrial partners who share that ambition.”
