15 years after the discovery of gas in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s promised bonanza has yet to materialise. Far from a windfall, companies are facing escalating costs and allegations of complicity in war crimes. Production remains years out despite a recent announcement that operations are restarting. An Islamic insurgency linked to historical grievances as well as resource extraction has spread across the region, creating a humanitarian emergency and threatening other important economic activity, including mining.
Through human rights delegations in 2023 and 2025, Oxfam set out to Cabo Delgado to understand what went wrong and where there are opportunities to improve local outcomes.
Remote and resource-rich, Cabo Delgado has a history of extractivism, organised crime, and separatism. The province was the crucial base of operations for Frelimo (Frente de Libertação de Moçambique) in the war for independence; while the colonial dynamics have shifted, the orientation away from Maputo remains. Predictably, given this disconnect from the capital, Cabo Delgado remains the poorest province in Mozambique, a trend which has continued downward despite recent wealth gains elsewhere in the country.
Based on dozens of interviews, local communities are frustrated with this grinding inequality, particularly around security provision in the context of ongoing gas development.
The Rovuma Basin off the coast of Cabo Delgado holds massive liquified natural gas reserves. Developed in consortiums led by TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil, the gas projects were assumed to grow into the continent’s largest. On the Afungi peninsula near Rovuma, project developers established a large export hub and helped establish a Joint Task Force to protect the investments.
These plans were derailed with the one-two punch of COVID and conflict. A major attack in March 2021 by Islamic State-Mozambique (ISM) against Palma, the closest city to Afungi, led TotalEnergies to declare force majeure. A multinational force, including members from the Southern African Development Community and Rwanda, entered to provide protection along with various private security contractors, including Russia’s now-disbanded Wagner Group.
Inside the Afungi facility, companies are bunkered behind fences and guard towers while Rwandan and Mozambican forces continue to combat the insurgency, attempting to maintain a security perimeter. There are worrying cracks – in October, ISM carried out an attack in Palma for the first time since 2021 – and the insurgency itself is changing, becoming dispersed with more ransom and extortion attempts.
Outside the fence, communities are fearful of attacks along roads, in the bush, and in smaller villages. There have been a series of attacks relatively close to the Afungi facility since August 2025. Communities are under pressure from the Mozambican security forces, who often view them as supportive of ISM, as well as from the insurgents themselves, who are targeting those that have fled ISM or who are seen as receiving compensation from multinationals for lost land or property (creating a challenging operating context for companies).
Caught in this vicious cycle, communities are relying on the “local forces,” a paramilitary group of ex-liberation combatants. While generally trusted, the local forces are poorly equipped without satellite phones, sufficient food, or adequate medical supplies.
Military patrols along the highways are infrequent and military bases are often empty. Though a substantial number of troops are deployed to Cabo Delgado, community leaders told us that those forces do not respond to their calls for help. The local forces are often the first and, sometimes, the only responders when ISM attacks.
Unsurprisingly, residents and members of the local forces – along with some oil field contractors and the police – expressed consistent frustrations that project developers were protecting gas over people. While normalcy has returned to some areas of Palma since 2021, the optics of life inside and outside the fence have only contributed to an ongoing sense of unequal protection. International legal challenges aside, the projects are at risk of losing their social licence to operate.
Not only is the government unable to exercise a legitimate monopoly over security but there are also substantial gaps in providing basic services. For its part, TotalEnergies has invested in socioeconomic development, committing $200 million to a foundation. Unfortunately this is unlikely to cover donor gaps following the wake of USAID’s collapse and UN funding uncertainties (the US government was committing $800 million per year to Mozambique in development assistance alone).
More can be done, presumably at low cost. Formalising and investing in the local forces, along with the police, might help deter attacks. More frequent patrols, a faster response time to attacks, and more of a physical presence in military installations might help re-establish trust with local communities and ease fears.
At the same time, while security is precarious in Cabo Delgado, basic needs are not being met. Solutions must be more than military ones. In many ways, project developers are aware of this: since 2023, banking and some health services have been restored. The national government must better prioritise local development, however, and companies must continue to advocate for a rights-centred approach to protection through initiatives like the Voluntary Principles on Security and Human Rights. Moreover, companies must avoid adopting too much of a “bunker” mentality, which will only worsen the prevailing sense of inequality.
Oxfam is concerned about financing through the US Export-Import Bank proceeding without robust investigations for outstanding allegations and better security guarantees for local communities. TotalEnergies has previously expressed its supported for an investigation by the Mozambican authorities; at a minimum, the company must also exercise its leverage and leadership position to help proactively protect those around the site.
Restarting operations without these protections in place risks contributing to the very dynamics that have frustrated these projects from the start.
Written by Andrew Bogrand, Policy Lead, Human Rights and Natural Resource Justice, Oxfam America and Romao Xavier, International Development Consultant
