Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Jack is flying solo today, on a trip to East Africa that he’s excited to tell you about soon enough.
Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s SitRep! Jack is flying solo today, on a trip to East Africa that he’s excited to tell you about soon enough.
Alright, here’s what’s on tap for the day: Niger descends into a regional free-for-all, the White House wants to put Taiwan aid on the same tab as Ukraine’s weapons, and the U.S. military considers sending troops to a key oil chokepoint in the Middle East.
Free-for-all
U.S. President Joe Biden is calling for Niger’s military leaders—some of them trained by the U.S. military—to release democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, who was ousted last week in a coup. Biden has ordered the evacuation of most U.S. diplomats from the country, following an attack on the French Embassy on Sunday in Niger’s capital of Niamey. And several West African states are threatening to intervene by the weekend if Bazoum isn’t reinstated, Senegal being the latest country to join the calls to restore the president.
Niger is the fourth West African state to undergo a coup since 2020. Yet even as the Nigerien military brass took steps to normalize the coup, with Gen. Salifou Mody heading to Mali on Wednesday, some things seemed like business as usual in the West. On Thursday, Biden sent out what appeared to be a mostly precooked statement, congratulating Niger on the 63rd anniversary of its independence from France but fearing a “grave challenge to its democracy.” But the U.S. administration stopped well short of calling the military overthrow a coup, which would force the Biden administration to cut military aid to the country.
For now, at least 1,100 U.S. soldiers and airmen based in the country, where the United States is building a large drone base, are staying put but are restricted to their bases. Mody’s visit to Mali, a country that has openly spurned United Nations peacekeepers and welcomed a large presence of mercenaries with Russia’s Wagner Group, could be a sign that Niamey, once thought to be the linchpin of the U.S. counterterrorism strategy in West Africa against the Islamic State and al Qaeda’s regional franchises, could also be falling into Moscow’s arms. And the coup leaders have used the diplomatic departures to challenge the West: Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, who is calling himself the head of a self-declared transitional government after last week’s military coup, said Wednesday that the French have “no objective reason to leave Niger,” referring to the evacuation of French citizens ordered by President Emmanuel Macron.
In a diplomatic pickle, Biden has been left with little but words. “In this critical moment, the United States stands with the people of Niger to honor our decades-long partnership rooted in shared democratic values and support for civilian-led governance,” Biden said in his statement. “The Nigerien people have the right to choose their leaders. They have expressed their will through free and fair elections—and that must be respected.” Since Washington is offering no carrots and wielding no stick, the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington-based think tank, assessed that the coup leaders were unlikely to bow to Western pressure to back down.
For now, the Economic Community of West African States has imposed sanctions on Niger and set a Sunday deadline for the coup leaders to back off and restore the nation’s constitution—or face military intervention. But in the meantime, Western leaders are worried that Russia is still on the move in the region. “Russia has been fueling these coups [in Africa] with its false propaganda and profiting from … these military regimes with its private militias that plunder the wealth of the region,” Josep Borrell, the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, said this week.
Let’s Get Personnel
The U.S. Senate has confirmed Nisha Biswal to be the new deputy CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corp.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Add it to my tab. The White House is asking Congress to start tacking on military aid to Taiwan to supplemental budget requests for U.S. assistance to Ukraine, the Financial Times reports. The move would allow Taiwan to get U.S. military aid from the State Department’s largest pot—so-called foreign military financing. It’s another sign that the Biden administration is beginning to use authorities adapted to help Ukraine fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion to prevent a Chinese assault on Taiwan: This week, the United States announced plans to supply Taipei with weapons from U.S. stockpiles through presidential drawdown authority—which has been the main source of Washington’s military aid to Ukraine.
Slingshot. The United States has given the thumbs-up to allow the David’s Sling air defense system co-developed by Washington and Israel to be sold to newly minted NATO member Finland, a move that could help the Nordic country protect its skies against the threat of a Russian missile attack. The $345 million deal for the system, which has been operational in Israel since 2017, will allow Finland to intercept slow-flying cruise missiles and rockets.
Strait and narrow. The U.S. military is mulling over a plan to put armed guards on commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, The Associated Press reports, in an effort to stop Iran from harassing or seizing vessels going through one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints. The move comes as the U.S. Defense Department is sending thousands of Marines and sailors on amphibious assault ships to the Persian Gulf, possibly in an effort to lead the guard mission.
Snapshot
A police officer watches reporters working in front of the E. Barrett Prettyman Federal Courthouse in Washington on Aug. 3, as they waited for former U.S. President Donald Trump to arrive for his arraignment on four felony counts. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Put on Your Radar
Thursday, Aug. 3: British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly travels to Zambia amid a multiday trip to Africa. Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi is in Ethiopia as part of an effort to get African countries to pressure Russia to get back into the Black Sea grain deal.
Monday, Aug. 8: Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva hosts an Amazon regional summit in Belém, Brazil.
Quote of the Week
“President Trump asked me to put him over the Constitution. But I chose the Constitution. … I really do believe that anyone who puts themself over the Constitution should never be president of the United States.”
—Former U.S. Vice President Mike Pence sticks it to his former boss as the ex-president was set to be arraigned on Thursday in Washington over charges that he used “unlawful means” to try to overturn his 2020 election loss.
This Week’s Most Read
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
It ain’t checkers. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is trying to revive chess in the United Kingdom, offering to financially back England’s chess teams and rolling out 100 chess tables in public parks. And he’s planning to unveil the initiative later this month by rolling out an enormous chess set outside No. 10 Downing Street. A Scholar’s Mate would be unsporting—but then again, Brexit.
