The IMF projects that Nigeria will account for 1.5 percent of total global real GDP growth in 2026, placing it among the world’s top ten contributors and making it the only African country on the list.
In recent IMF outlooks, South Africa had ranked ahead of Nigeria in Africa’s share of global growth, supported by its larger nominal economy and Nigeria’s weaker performance over the past two to three years amid currency instability, inflation and policy uncertainty.
The 2026 projections mark a shift, with Nigeria regaining momentum following recent reforms, while South Africa continues to face headwinds from subdued growth, power shortages and trade-related pressures.
Nigeria’s Growth Outlook
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecasts Nigeria’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will expand by 4.4 percent in 2026, easing to 4.1 percent in 2027.
The Fund attributed the outlook to exchange-rate adjustments, the removal of fuel subsidies and efforts to stabilise public finances, supported by expanding domestic demand.
Analysts say the slight slowdown projected for 2027 may reflect uncertainty ahead of Nigeria’s general elections, as election cycles have historically delayed investment decisions and heightened short-term policy uncertainty.
South Africa’s Growth Outlook
South Africa, Africa’s largest economy by nominal GDP, is forecast to grow 1.4 percent in 2026 and 1.5 percent in 2027, according to IMF estimates.
Growth remains constrained by power shortages, logistical bottlenecks, weak private investment and high unemployment, which have weighed on industrial output and consumption.
Chronic underinvestment in Eskom (power) and Transnet (logistics) has kept South Africa’s growth significantly below its potential, while trade frictions and tariff-related uncertainty with major partners, including the United States, have further dampened exports and investor sentiment, particularly in manufacturing and mining.
Nominal GDP Rankings
In nominal terms, the IMF projects South Africa’s GDP at $443.64 billion in 2026, followed by Egypt at $399.51 billion, with Nigeria close behind at $334.34 billion.
The ranking returns Nigeria to Africa’s top three economies, a position it previously held before a period of economic turbulence. Algeria and Morocco complete the continent’s top five.
Global Context
Global growth remains concentrated in Asia. China is expected to contribute 26.6 percent of global growth in 2026, followed by India at 17 percent and the United States at 9.9 percent.
China and India together are projected to generate nearly 44 percent of total growth, while the broader Asia-Pacific region accounts for almost half of worldwide expansion.
Other contributors include Indonesia, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Vietnam and Germany. The IMF warned in its October report that global growth would continue to slow amid fragmentation, rising protectionism, financial vulnerabilities and policy uncertainty.
Market Reaction
The projections have drawn attention from global business figures. Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared the IMF data on X, commenting that “the balance of power is changing.”
The remark was widely interpreted as pointing to a gradual shift in economic momentum away from Europe and the United States, where growth has historically been driven more by consumption, toward emerging economies such as China, India and Nigeria, which are playing a larger role in driving global output.
