For most firms, the new rules of engagement imposed by Washington mean having to restructure their operations, at times resorting to operational silos to shield business units from the risk of contagion, duplicating businesses and supply chains in different geographies to comply with increasingly mutually-exclusive regulatory environments, and in some extreme cases spinning off or selling entire businesses as a result of the weaponisation of their economic interests in the grander scheme of Great Power Competition.
The new tectonics of global geoeconomics
The global economy continues to navigate a complex landscape marked by shifting geoeconomic power, a multiplication of localised proxy conflicts, disrupted supply chains, and heightened technological polarisation. These challenges are reshaping the international business environment at an unprecedented pace, forcing organisations to adapt quickly or risk obsolescence.
From the energy transition needs and the urgency of environmental sustainability to the persistent challenges of economic competition, corporate leaders face mounting pressures from multiple directions. The increasingly systematic use of economic sanctions, embargos, and export controls has transformed trade relations into potential geopolitical vulnerabilities. Economic warfare now routinely weaponises corporate interests, creating unexpected risks for businesses operating across borders.
In this volatile climate, executives must fundamentally re-assess their global dependencies and vulnerabilities. Companies need to develop comprehensive strategies that balance efficiency with resilience, diversify supply chains, and maintain access to critical resources and markets. Building organisational adaptability has become essential, as has the ability to navigate competing regulatory regimes while maintaining ethical standards. Forward-thinking leaders are now prioritising strategic autonomy alongside traditional growth metrics to ensure long-term sustainability in an increasingly fragmented global economy.
The end of globalisation and global rebalancing
The rise of emerging markets signifies a profound shift in the global economic landscape, challenging traditional power dynamics and creating a multipolar world order characterised by a flurry of “minilateral” trade agreements (RCEP, CPTPP, RSCI, etc.). Since 2001, G20 emerging markets have doubled their share of world trade and foreign direct investment and now account for one-third of global GDP, becoming major players in manufacturing and resource extraction.
With the expansion of BRICS, recently adding the UAE, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and Indonesia, with Saudi Arabia formally invited and still to officialise its participation, many of these rapidly growing economies are reshaping the rules of the global economy. This transformation has led to new models of trade, investment, and governance as emerging powers assert greater influence in international institutions and bilateral relationships.
The reconfiguration extends beyond economics into geopolitics, with emerging markets redesigning global supply chains according to new alignments and security realities. This shift represents not merely economic growth but a fundamental restructuring of global influence, where developing nations increasingly determine their own developmental pathways and challenge Western-dominated frameworks of international cooperation and economic integration.
The Global South and new supply chains
The Global South is pioneering innovative solutions and building remarkable resilience as it confronts a multitude of challenges from climate change to economic volatility. Countries across the Middle East, Africa, South Asia, the Asia-Pacific and Latin America are implementing creative approaches to sustainable development that often leapfrog traditional technologies and methodologies used in developed nations. This focus on adaptability and innovation increasingly positions the Global South as a vital engine of global resilience and growth.
However, fueling this engine requires substantial resources and energy, necessitating revamped, adaptable supply chains. Significant geoeconomic shifts have already reshaped global trade patterns, driving the creation of new supply chain networks that bypass traditional hubs and create direct regional connections. These emerging supply chains promise to create a more diversified and robust global trade system.
Yet this transformation isn’t without risks. New supply chains could exacerbate regional tensions and expose vulnerabilities in an increasingly uncertain world. For corporate leaders, navigating these complex waters requires strategic foresight, local knowledge, and adaptable business models that can thrive amid shifting geopolitical and economic landscapes.
Energy transition and technology choices
The global energy transition is at a pivotal moment, reflecting a growing commitment to decarbonisation and a more sustainable energy future. Global energy investment was projected to surpass $3 trillion in 2024, with an impressive $2 trillion allocated specifically to clean energy initiatives. This unprecedented financial commitment signals a fundamental shift in priorities across public and private sectors worldwide.
However, this transition is not without significant challenges. Technological polarisation is emerging as different regions and companies pursue competing solutions, creating fragmented markets and innovation pathways. In some cases, we are witnessing the rise of “technological Galapagos”, ecosystems operating entirely independently from the rest. Simultaneously, conflicts over norms and standards threaten to complicate global cooperation, as nations and blocs establish regulatory frameworks that sometimes conflict or compete with one another.
These dynamics are forcing corporations to significantly enhance their strategic foresight capabilities. Companies must develop sophisticated intelligence systems to anticipate market shifts, regulatory changes, and technological breakthroughs. Only with this enhanced predictive capacity can organisations make optimal strategic and operational decisions at precisely the right moments. Furthermore, many businesses are finding it necessary to reconfigure their supply chains to ensure resilience, compliance, and competitive advantage in this rapidly evolving landscape.
A case in point: the automotive industry
In the sustainable mobility sector alone, electric vehicles (EVs), plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen technologies are engaged in fierce competition for dominance in transportation’s future landscape. Global automotive manufacturers are directing substantial investments toward diverse powertrain technologies, recognising the shifting paradigm.
The remarkable trajectory of electric car sales illustrates this transformation, with projections indicating approximately 17 million units sold in 2024—constituting over 20% of total automotive sales globally. This significant market share signals a fundamental evolution in consumer preferences toward sustainable transport solutions.
Identifying which technology will ultimately prevail in addressing environmental imperatives, meeting evolving consumer demands, and overcoming infrastructure limitations over the coming decades is absolutely crucial. This foresight enables proactive development of appropriately resilient supply chain networks, spanning from the extraction and processing of critical raw materials upstream to the manufacturing and distribution of spare components downstream.
The industry that correctly anticipates this technological dominance will secure significant competitive advantages through early infrastructure establishment, strategic partnerships, and optimal resource allocation across the entire value chain.
The GCC as a new bridge between powers
Oman has long served as a quiet diplomatic mediator between adversaries with seemingly unbridgeable differences. Now, other Gulf Cooperation Council nations are following suit, stepping forward as intermediaries in complex conflicts involving critical security, political, territorial, and economic interests.
In 2021, the UAE quietly facilitated a ceasefire and negotiations between India and Pakistan regarding their enduring Kashmir conflict. More recently, Saudi Arabia has hosted Russia-US peace talks over Ukraine in Riyadh, while Qatar has revived dialogue between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda to address the civil war fueled by Rwanda-supported M23 rebels.
This independent and balanced foreign policy positions these Gulf economies advantageously. They are now better positioned to develop equitable economic and technological partnerships with nations across geopolitical divides, establishing the region as a strategic economic gateway to domestic, regional, and global markets.
The way forward
In light of the rapid changes in the dynamics of global geopolitics and geoeconomic alignments, the profound impact on supply chains and the new market opportunities arising from these shifts, global businesses need to prepare to navigate these changing seas, build strategic foresight, improve resilience and thrive in these VUCA – Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity conditions.
Today’s multinational corporations face unprecedented challenges as traditional alliances fracture and new economic blocs emerge. These transformations disrupt established supply networks while simultaneously creating novel prospects in developing markets. Forward-thinking organisations must develop robust scenario planning capabilities, diversify sourcing strategies, and cultivate adaptive leadership competencies. By investing in comprehensive risk assessment frameworks and fostering collaborative partnerships across borders, businesses can not only weather geopolitical storms but capitalise on emerging opportunities in this rapidly evolving global landscape.
