While African youth generally do not consider Russia to be among the most influential international players in the region, about two in five (41%) still perceive it as having some influence in their countries, a level well below that of the US and China, according to the 2024 African Youth Survey.
For Malawi and South Africa in particular, the perceived influence of Russia in these countries has increased significantly from 2022. Among Malawian youth, Russia’s influence jumps from 14% in 2022 to 49% in 2024, while in South Africa, perceptions increase from 34% in 2022 to 57% in 2024. Similarly, in South Africa, this perception has climbed from 34% in 2022 to 57% in 2024.
These increases may be linked to the global implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For Malawian youth in particular, another likely contributor to this heightened perception of Russia’s influence is the provision of fertilizer donations, which have aided smallholders and subsistence farmers, who constitute a large portion of the population, in coping with rising costs and fertilizer shortages.
Overall, perceptions of Russia’s influence have remained stable and positive over time, hovering around two-in-three (68%)—though this still trails behind the perceived positive influence of the US and China.
Nevertheless, when African youth are asked which global political or business leaders will most significantly impact the continent, many anticipate that Vladimir Putin will emerge as one of the most influential foreign leaders in Africa shortly.
Positive drivers of the perception
Amidst geopolitical competition with the West, Russia is increasingly capitalizing on anti-Western sentiment to boost its influence on the African continent. While Russia’s involvement across Africa is still considerably less than that of both China and Western nations, some African governments, particularly South Africa, are beginning to pivot towards Moscow.
This shift is likely driven by frustrations over the shortcomings of Western interventions, a perceived lack of African representation in international institutions, and a desire among African nations to diversify their partnerships to enhance their standing both domestically and globally.
Negative drivers of the perception
A notable minority (30%) of African youth view the influence of Russia negatively, with this proportion rising from 23% in 2022. Negative perceptions peak at nearly half of the youth in Botswana (55%) and Gabon (49%), likely reflecting their concerns about Russia’s involvement in the conflict with Ukraine.
