As Rwanda-backed M23 rebels advance, intense fighting has displaced hundreds of thousands of people in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, sparking fears that the ripple effects in neighboring countries could cause a regional war.
“Near the frontlines, sexual violence and human rights abuses remain rampant, as is the looting and destruction of civilian homes and businesses,” the Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said in a statement on March 4.
Describing the crisis as one of the worst humanitarian emergencies in the world, Patrick Eba, deputy director of UNHCR’s Division of International Protection, said nearly 80,000 Congolese fled into neighboring countries between January and early March, including about 61,000 in Burundi.
More than 1 million Congolese refugees are scattered across Africa, mostly in neighboring countries. Uganda hosts more than half of that total. Before the latest M23 offensive, about 6.7 million people were internally displaced in the DRC.
In addition to eastern DRC, the humanitarian situation is deteriorating in Burundi and Uganda, which shoulder heavy burdens in caring for refugees. Experts warn that rising tension in neighboring countries could exacerbate the geopolitical consternation already present over Rwanda’s show of force and disregard for territorial and mineral sovereignty.
“If diplomacy fails, the armed protagonists may decide to pursue military solutions, a scenario that would be a repeat of the Second Congo War, which pitted the DRC government and its SADC [Southern African Development Community] allies on one side and Uganda and Rwanda on the other,” the Africa Center for Strategic Studies wrote in a February 26 assessment.
Violence, famine and disease raged throughout the Second Congo War from 1998 to 2003, as several African nations were drawn onto the battlefield and millions died. Some fear that history may be repeated.
Uganda deployed troops in the town of Bunia, the capital of Ituri province, on February 18 “to fight local militias” but later clarified that its mission is to fight the Islamic State-aligned terrorist group known as the Allied Democratic Forces. The actual aims of the Ugandan military (UPDF), however, remain opaque.
“There were massacres being committed by some militia groups and we agreed with our Congolese counterparts to carry out joint operations to save lives,” Ugandan military spokesman Felix Kulayigye said after the UPDF “took control” of Bunia.
On March 2, Kulayigye told Agence France-Presse: “Our troops have entered Mahagi town, and we are in control.”
The DRC also reportedly requested military support from Chad around the time that M23 fighters overran Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province. Burundian Soldiers fought alongside the Congolese military (FARDC) to try to defend Kavumu and its airport, which serves Bukavu. M23 met little resistance, however, spurring a withdrawal of around 10,000 Burundian troops in South Kivu. Burundian Soldiers had been deployed for years in eastern DRC seeking to neutralize Burundian rebels. But more recently, they assisted the FARDC in the fight against M23.
“The proximity of the fighting to Bujumbura, just across the DRC border, risks leading to a direct confrontation between Burundian and Rwandan troops,” the Africa Center wrote.
Meanwhile, the horrors of outright warfare have engulfed the region.
The UNHCR has “confirmed cases of summary execution of children by M23 after they entered the city of Bukavu,” UNHCR chief Volker Turk said in a February 18 statement. “We are also aware that children were in possession of weapons.”
Data collected by UNICEF shows that attacks on schools and hospitals have multiplied by 12, deaths and injuries have increased sevenfold, abductions have increased sixfold, and cases of sexual violence have increased by more than two and a half times.
UNICEF has expressed alarm over a significant rise in reports of grave violations committed against children in parts of the eastern DRC, saying that the number of incidents has tripled since the end of January.
“All warning signals are flashing red,” said Bruno Lemarquis, U.N. humanitarian coordinator for the DRC. “We stand at a crossroads. Without increased international mobilization, humanitarian needs will skyrocket, regional stability will be further jeopardized, and our capacity to respond will be severely compromised.”
