High volumes of fresh produce have coincided with cash-strapped consumers, bringing a halt to festive season pricing. Farmers are therefore unlikely to see the higher prices for their produce that are typical at this time of year.
Photo: Lindi Botha
“We are fully stocked with all the summer fruit, but there are no customers. The market is dead quiet,” Corrie Engelbrecht, a market agent for DW Fresh Produce in Johannesburg, told Farmer’s Weekly.
While the reason for the lack of traffic at the Joburg Fresh Produce Market is unclear, Engelbrecht speculated that it could be due to the hawkers being removed from the streets around the city during the G20 Leaders’ Summit that was held at the end of November.
However, economic pressure on consumers has brought subdued spending throughout the year, with little relief as the festive season approaches.
Johnny van der Merwe, managing director of Agricultural Market Trends, noted that while the lower interest rates have created positive sentiment in the economy, the pressure consumers are facing will not improve overnight.
He noted that the biggest positive effect would likely be seen in niche products like lamb, which are aimed at higher-income groups, since these consumers have higher debt levels and will feel more relief from interest rate cuts.
Oversupplied fruit
Engelbrecht said items that typically see large price increases in December are pomegranates, figs, and custard apples, since consumers seek produce that is out of the ordinary. However, these items are mostly out of season in December, with only a few production regions across the country in harvest.
“If we can get them, they sell out fast. But everything else is sitting,” he added.
Produce in peak season, such as table grapes, blueberries, and peaches, is seeing price declines. Engelbrecht said that while December typically sees good prices being paid for peaches, this year is different.
“Demand is low, as is quality. Because of the rain, farmers are packing wet fruit, which goes mouldy in the boxes.
“We are also seeing that informal traders are deciding on low prices and sticking to them. We are in a difficult position because if we don’t drop the prices, the produce rots. But we can’t go too low, because the farmers then lose.”
Van der Merwe noted that blueberry prices are expected to remain low in December: “Volumes at the start of December were 2% higher year-on-year [y/y], with prices 7% lower y/y. Although volumes will dip slightly in December, we are only likely to see an improvement in prices in January, peaking in April.”
Table grape prices are also declining as volumes rise. Van der Merwe said grape prices were around 20% lower at the start of December than the previous year, following a very good start to the season. The decline is expected to continue throughout the month.
Vegetable prices are also low due to high volumes, although carrot prices are expected to increase as demand rises in December.
Meat prices: par for the course
Meat prices are currently mostly following historic trends, with slaughter prices increasing while weaner calf and store lamb prices have declined in December.
Van der Merwe explained that since cattle super prices are influenced by consumer demand, they are expected to increase towards Christmas.
Although weaner calf and store lamb prices remained high during the year, he does not believe this trend will continue into the festive season.
“Finisher farmers or feedlots don’t typically stock their farms during the December holidays, so demand is likely to subside and with it prices,” he explained.
This trend is expected to continue until March, when weaner calf prices are typically low. The weather is expected to have a big influence on weaner calf and store lamb prices during the first half of 2026, with prices dropping further if a dry autumn materialises.
Chicken prices were close to their highest point at the start of December, but Van der Merwe believes they could start declining towards Christmas, reaching their lowest point in mid-January. Thereafter, prices are expected to increase again.
