The world is waking up to a stark truth: the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is rewriting the rules of energy, and with it, the geopolitics of power.
A recent headline screaming “Elon Was Right—AI Boom Sparks Natural Gas Surge—Green Energy Fantasy Crumbles” isn’t just a tech story; it’s a seismic shift with profound implications for Kenya’s foreign policy and economic strategy.
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As Big Tech giants like Microsoft and Meta pivot to natural gas and even coal to fuel AI’s insatiable energy demands, the so-called “green energy transition” is hitting a wall of reality. For Kenya, this is not a distant spectacle—it’s an opportunity to position ourselves as a strategic player in a rapidly changing world.
In 2023 Kenya hosted the Africa Climate Summit, out of which emerged the Nairobi Declaration, advocating for climate-positive growth strategies while addressing the unique challenges facing the continent.
This declaration underscores Kenya’s leadership in balancing sustainability with economic pragmatism, and now, in the face of shifting global energy realities, we must integrate this vision with a more flexible and strategic energy policy.
For years, the global narrative has been dominated by activists and policymakers preaching renewable energy as the sole path forward. Solar and wind were heralded as the future, while hydrocarbons were vilified. Yet, as Elon Musk has long cautioned, physics doesn’t bend to ideology.
AI’s exponential growth—powering everything from data centers to autonomous systems—requires reliable, scalable energy. Renewables, while valuable, simply can’t keep up. The result? Over 220 natural gas plants are now under construction across the United States alone, with coal even staging a comeback. This isn’t a retreat from progress; it’s a pragmatic reckoning with what works.
For Kenya, this shift is a wake-up call. Our foreign policy must adapt to these new realities, balancing our commitments to sustainability with the hard-nosed pragmatism that global competition demands. Here’s why—and how—we should act.
Energy is Power—Literally and Figuratively
As AI becomes the backbone of economic and military might, countries that can secure reliable energy supplies will dominate the 21st century. Kenya’s rich renewable resources, like geothermal and solar, give us a strong foundation, but we mustn’t be naive.
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The AI-driven world won’t wait for intermittent power sources to catch up. Natural gas, abundant in East Africa thanks to discoveries in Mozambique and Tanzania, could be a game-changer. Strengthening ties with these neighbors through energy partnerships—perhaps even exploring our own offshore potential—could position Kenya as a regional hub for the hybrid energy systems AI demands.
Challenging the Western-Driven Green Agenda
This moment exposes the limits of Western-driven green policies. For too long, developing nations like Kenya have been pressured to prioritize renewables at the expense of industrialization, even as the West quietly backtracks.
The hypocrisy is glaring: while activists scolded us for coal-fired plants, Big Tech is now firing up fossil fuels to power their AI dreams. Kenya should leverage this contradiction in international forums like the UN, advocating for a fairer energy framework that lets us harness all available resources—renewable and fossil—to fuel our own growth.
A Trade Opportunity Staring Us in the Face
As global demand for natural gas surges, Kenya can play a strategic role in the supply chain. Our ports, like Mombasa, are well-placed to facilitate East African gas exports to energy-hungry markets in Asia and beyond.
By investing in infrastructure and deepening ties with gas-rich neighbors, we can turn geography into economic advantage. At the same time, we should court tech giants directly. Imagine a Microsoft or Meta data center in Nairobi or Naivasha, powered by a mix of geothermal and regional gas—a showcase of practical, not ideological, energy solutions.
The Urgency of Action
But we must move fast. The AI boom waits for no one, and neither do its energy needs. China, already a dominant player in Africa, won’t hesitate to lock up regional gas deals. The U.S., with its own shale revolution, will push its exports aggressively.
Kenya risks being sidelined if we cling to an outdated script of renewable purity. Instead, let’s craft a foreign policy that’s as dynamic as the world we’re entering—one that blends our green strengths with the fossil fuel realities the AI age demands.
Elon Musk saw this coming: physics always wins. Kenya must see it too. This isn’t about abandoning sustainability; it’s about embracing a broader vision of progress. By acting strategically now—building energy alliances, asserting our voice globally, and capitalizing on trade—we can turn the AI-driven energy surge into a springboard for our own rise. The world is shifting. Let’s shift with it, and win.
Timothy Kamau Nyenjeri writes on political economy, international trade, and geopolitics.
