The postponement of Senegal’s elections has provoked one of the most serious political crises to hit the country in decades.
“There has never been any question of me extending my term of office,” declared President Macky Sall during a televised interview last week after weeks of protests and instability in a country known for its history of smooth democratic transitions.
Earlier last month, Senegal’s president announced his intention to postpone the country’s presidential election in order to investigate a dispute over the list of approved presidential candidates. The postponement of the election provoked an outcry from the opposition and civil society members—who are calling it a “constitutional coup.”
Sall, who has been in power since 2012, agreed to step down in April in an effort to appease the public by dispelling any doubts about his departure at the end of his term. Though the election was originally due to take place on Feb. 25, Senegal is still waiting for a new poll date. The national dialogue, a panel made up of members of civil society, presidential candidates, and other stakeholders, has proposed that the election be held on June 2. However, it remains unclear whether Sall will follow through.
But not everyone seems convinced of Sall’s good faith. “It’s a lack of respect for the Senegalese people,” Aliou Mamadou Dia, a presidential candidate, told Foreign Policy over the phone, affirming that Sall should abide by the Constitutional Council’s decision to organize elections as soon as possible. Meanwhile, the civil society group Aar Sunu Élection (or “Secure Our Election” in Wolof) announced that it intends to join forces with other opposition initiatives such as F24.
Sall, who has served two terms in office, is no longer a popular leader. His administration has been plagued by several scandals. In 2019, Sall’s younger brother was accused of taking bribes to license offshore exploration rights; in 2022, a report by the Senegalese Court of Auditors called attention to government mismanagement of COVID-19 pandemic relief funds. As his second term draws to a close, Senegalese are more than ready for a change.
Last summer, Sall announced that he would not stand for a third term, thus respecting the Senegalese Constitution. For two years, he had cast doubt on the possibility of running for a third term, leading to numerous demonstrations that were repressed by the authorities.
However, in a turnabout last month, Sall decided to postpone the presidential election and thus extend his mandate as head of Senegal. At the time, opposition members decided to block the vote, calling the law a “constitutional coup d’état,” but the military police intervened and forcibly removed opposition deputies from parliament. After their departure, the law was passed almost unanimously. But the images of soldiers gathered in the assembly hall made a strong impression on the country.
Over the past three years, the Sahel region, of which Senegal is a part, has suffered several military coups—including in Mali, Chad, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Against this backdrop of regional instability, many feared that Senegal, which has enjoyed a relatively peaceful and stable democracy compared to its West African neighbors, could be next.
In the hours preceding the vote, Sall’s government shut down the internet as people demonstrated in major cities. The police imposed a bloody crackdown on protests, leading to three deaths.
“It’s distressing. It’s an unconstitutional decision,” said Mamadou, who lives in Thiaroye-sur-Mer, a commune on the outskirts of Dakar that has been hit by the country’s economic crisis. According to the World Bank, the country’s economy in 2022 was hit by global inflationary pressures, an unfavorable rainfall pattern, and an overall economic slowdown linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Young people are leaving Senegal in large numbers in the hope of finding a better future on the other side of the Mediterranean Sea. “Young people here are desperately short of prospects, there are no jobs, and now that the law is being flouted, they have no other recourse than violence and leaving the country. It’s a time bomb,” Mamadou added.
Internationally, too, the postponement has raised more than a few eyebrows. The U.S. State Department, in a statement, expressed concern about the delay, stating that the action runs “contrary to Senegal’s strong democratic tradition.” In addition to the U.S., the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the African Union, the European Union, and the United Kingdom, all important partners of Senegal, have expressed their concern.
Though the Constitutional Council, has vetoed the postponement and asked the authorities to organize the elections as soon as possible, it remains unclear how Sall’s administration will proceed.
“We’re still in a state of uncertainty,” said Paulin Maurice Toupane, a senior researcher and analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in Dakar, in a telephone interview with Foreign Policy. “There is no clear timetable, which raises fears of some kind of a maneuver to keep him [Sall] in power until the candidate of his choice is ready to succeed him.”
Though it is uncertain what Sall’s true motives are, some believe he is preparing the ground for a candidate other than Amadou Ba, who belongs to the president’s party and is currently serving as Senegal’s prime minister. Though Ba has been officially designated as Sall’s successor, he has not received the party’s united support.
Civil society groups like Aar Sunu Élection and FC25, the alliance of presidential candidates, are both calling on the public to continue mobilizing. In the meantime, Sall has released at least 300 political prisoners, including opposition members and demonstrators, in a bid to calm spirits. There is even talk that his historic opponent, Ousmane Sonko, may be released.
Sonko, who was long seen as the man who could win this year’s presidential election, was accused of rape in 2021. Though he was acquitted of that charge, he was convicted and imprisoned last year for a separate charge regarding the corruption of a young person.
Sonko’s imprisonment was seen by many as a political maneuver designed to keep him out of the presidential race. It led to numerous demonstrations, bloody repression, and the imprisonment of many of Sonko’s supporters, including Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who would later be designated as Sonko’s successor in the presidential race.
Another reason for Sall delaying the elections—and extending his time in office—may be that he could face trial once he is out of power, Toupane said. Between the accusations of embezzlement and his administration’s use of violence to curb protests, which have led to some 60 deaths, the Senegalese public might ask for justice.
“Since 2021, civil society organizations have been calling for judicial proceedings to clarify the deaths of all those young people killed during the demonstrations,” Toupane said. “If there is a change of power, legal proceedings will be initiated to elucidate not only the deaths of these demonstrators, but also to punish those found guilty.”
Over the past three years, while the armed takeovers of the region have isolated the juntas diplomatically, they have also had serious consequences on the economics and security of West Africa.
Some of those countries have been subjected to travel, commercial, and economic sanctions by ECOWAS, generating shortages and accentuating wealth disparities among those countries’ populations. Moreover, these sanctions have enabled Russia to extend its influence with the new rulers, notably through shipments of equipment, weapons, and wheat. In addition to supplies from the Kremlin, the Russian paramilitary group Wagner has gained steady influence in the region over the years—providing security support to African countries plagued by political instability while sowing the seeds of anti-Western propaganda, pillaging, and leaving death in its wake.
There are also fears of violent extremist groups taking advantage of the political instability to infiltrate the country. In the north and northeast of Senegal, armed groups affiliated with al Qaeda, including the Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin, have already been identified. These groups, mainly from neighboring Mali, are gaining strength thanks to the lack of legitimacy of the current government and France’s loss of influence in the region.
On April 2, Sall will no longer have the legal legitimacy to hold power, which could further destabilize the country. If, however, he were to resign, the situation could change. The population might calm down and new elections could be held, but such an orderly solution does not seem to be in the cards at the moment.
Numerous opposition figures and several political, religious, and civil society leaders have boycotted the national dialogue proposed by Sall. In what the government sees as a show of good faith, the president has also floated the idea of passing a general amnesty law for those who have been arrested during demonstrations since 2021.
But no one knows if such a law would affect the key opposition leaders—Sonko and Faye. Amid all this uncertainty, suspense has taken over the country. Who will govern the country between April and June, when the election is due to take place? Will Sall step down? If not, will citizens accept him in the interim? And if they do not and take to the streets to show their anger, what will happen?
For Assia, 35, who lives in Dakar, Sall is playing with fire given the geopolitical context of the region: “He doesn’t realize that anything can happen. Senegal can fall.”
