The maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has experienced a significant downturn following the series of Houthi attacks over the last 15 months, as evidenced by a comparison of transit data before and after the onset of these incidents.
Maritime risk intelligence firm Dryad Global reported that before the attacks started in November 2023, the strait saw an average of approximately 459 cargo-carrying vessels over 10,000 dwt per week. However, current data reflects a stark reduction, with only 252 transits recorded, marking a 48% decrease.
Analysing by vessel type, bulk carriers have seen the most dramatic decline, dropping from an average of 540 transits per week to just 79, an 85% reduction. Crude oil tankers have also decreased, from 78 transits to 45, indicating a 42% fall. Product tankers, with specifics less detailed pre-attack, are now averaging 43 transits per week. Containerships have plummeted by 70%, from a ‘normal’ average of 130 transits to only 40. General cargo ships have decreased by 24%, while LNG and LPG carriers have shown the most severe impact; no LNG carriers have transited since mid-March 2024, with LPG carrier traffic dropping by 92%, Dryad Global data revealed.
The total deadweight tonnage (DWT) of vessels passing through the strait has also fallen by 67% by March 2024, suggesting not only fewer ships but potentially smaller vessels or reduced cargo loads. The traffic through this region has not recovered since March of 2024. “This situation underscores the broader economic implications, including increased shipping times and costs due to rerouting around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope,” Dryad Global stated.
“The ongoing instability in the region has led to a rise in insurance premiums for ships transiting the Red Sea, reflecting the heightened risk. Despite some reduction in attack frequency, the shipping industry remains cautious, preferring longer but safer routes. This shift has been integrated into current economic models, and without a significant improvement in regional security, the return to pre-attack transit levels seems improbable in the near future. The strategic reassessment of shipping routes, coupled with the unpredictability of the situation, indicates a sustained avoidance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by commercial vessels until stability can be assured,” Dryad concluded.
