ADF STAFF
Clashes between civilian prime ministers and military junta leaders in the Sahel are highlighting the unsteady nature of military-led governments in a region where terror attacks are multiplying.
On December 6, Capt. Ibrahim Traore of Burkina Faso removed Prime Minister Apollinaire Kelem de Tambela, whom he had appointed to the position two years earlier. Traore also dissolved the government. The move came as Burkina Faso faces a deteriorating security situation with 13,500 people killed by extremist violence since the military took power in a coup in 2022. Armed groups now control more than half of the country.
In a swift reshuffling process, former Burkinabe minister of communication and close ally of Traore, Rimtalba Jean Emmanuel Ouédraogo was named prime minister two days later and made several key appointments to form a new cabinet. No explanation was given for the change.
“The firing of [de Tambela] has raised many questions in the minds of observers,” Franck Koffi wrote for Afrik.com. “Analysts are asking if this departure is linked to disagreements inside the government, tensions with President Traore or disagreements on how the transition should be managed.”
The move followed a similar action in Mali where a junta replaced civilian Prime Minister Choguel Maiga with Malian Armed Forces Gen. Abdoulaye Maiga in November. The civilian leader had been critical of extended military rule before his firing, saying the failure to set a firm date for elections could cause the country “serious challenges and the risk of going backwards.”
The firings show that juntas are having trouble finding civilian allies willing to support their agenda and help them maintain power. Dr. Olayinka Ajala, an associate professor at Leeds Beckett University who studies security and governance in the Sahel, said juntas across the region have tried to convince the public of the need to delay elections until the security threat has passed. This creates a natural tension with civilian officials who often push for a swifter return to constitutional order.
“They know that having civilians part of the organization will make it difficult to continue to sell these narratives because civilians will continue to pressure them to transition,” Ajala told ADF. “But it seems they are not in a hurry to transition; they are strengthening their grips.”
Mali’s ruling junta had initially promised to hold elections in early 2024 but has postponed them indefinitely. Burkina Faso’s military had pledged to hold elections in July 2024 but has extended its rule by five years.
For now, Ajala said, a large percentage of the public is willing to accept military rule due to anger at the political class that ruled the countries previously and a fear of escalating violence. Military juntas have used insecurity to justify maintaining power.
“They have been able to create the narrative that it is going to take a while to solve some of the countries’ pressing issues,” Ajala said. “Insecurity has been a very good way for them to say ‘Well, we cannot transition to democracy yet because of insecurity’ … the question is how well that will continue to work? We don’t know.”
The early returns on the military-led approach to countering violent extremism have not been positive. More than 11,000 people were killed in Sahelian nations in 2024, triple the total in 2020. At the same time, both the militaries of Burkina Faso and Mali have been accused of abuses and extrajudicial killings. Most experts believe that a heavy-handed, military-only approach to counterterror will be unsuccessful and may even worsen the problem.
“As long as the socioeconomic issues including poverty that actually draw young people to join terror groups are not addressed, these issues will not go away,” Ajala said. “Regardless of what military achievements are made, it is going to be ephemeral because these underlying issues need to be addressed.”
ADF is a professional military magazine published quarterly by U.S. Africa Command to provide an international forum for African security professionals. ADF covers topics such as counter terrorism strategies, security and defense operations, transnational crime, and all other issues affecting peace, stability, and good governance on the African continent.
