Good rain favours grain yields, but disease and price pressure mount

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According to Corné Louw, head of applied economics and member services at Grain SA, the grain and oilseed harvests to the west of the summer rainfall region, specifically North West and north-west Free State, “look fairly good at this stage”.

“Sunshine [over] the past few weeks helped a lot after the ample rain late last year. Producers in some parts of North West struggled to plant during the wet November and December. However, the majority are planted, and at this stage the soil moisture looks good,” he explained.

However, there is uncertainty over the depth of the maize and soya bean roots. Speaking to Farmer’s Weekly, Louw said it is unclear whether they are deep enough to withstand warm, sunny weather without regular follow-up rain.

“It’s important to note that it is still very early in the season, and we cannot assume it will be a big harvest. A lot can still change [between now and] March. We are now heading towards a very critical time in the production cycle.

“Looking at the north-west Free State, there was a lot of replanting. This means some of the plants aren’t as developed as they were in previous seasons,” he said.

Farmers in Mpumalanga are optimistic about the crops. Danie Bester, a grain and oilseed farmer in Balfour, said that although the wet weather made it difficult to plant, the maize and soya bean crops look favourable.

Bester reported that Balfour had received 655mm of rain between 1 September and the start of January, making it an above-average rainfall year. This also means heat units were lacking, which is expected to reduce grain weight.

“They say ‘rain makes grain’, but you also need sunshine. By the end of December, we were nine days behind on our expected heat units, which has pushed back the pollination on the maize.

“The soya beans will likely fare better, provided there is no hail damage. Most farmers in the region had hail at some stage during the season, which damaged parts of their crop,” he told Farmer’s Weekly.

Lion du Plessis, president of Agri Mpumalanga, who farms livestock and grain in Ermelo, noted that while grain production looks positive overall, concern is mounting over hay.

“Veld growth has been very slow due to the cool, wet weather. We are also struggling to cut the hay because everything is wet. If we don’t harvest soon and get the required quality, we will struggle to feed our livestock through winter,” he explained.

Disease and economic pressure

Farmers have noted a growing problem with weeds in their fields due to the ample rain. Louw said the wet conditions made it very difficult to control the weeds, as farmers couldn’t get into their fields to spray.

He added that wet seasons also make crops more susceptible to disease: “Some diseases, such as Sclerotinia, can appear in sunflowers when conditions are very wet; this will need to be monitored during the season.”

Bester noted that this year, he had observed northern corn leaf blight on his maize crop earlier than ever before.

“If the next few weeks bring ample sunshine, we can expect an explosion of disease. Worms on the soya bean will be a particular problem. However, because there haven’t been enough heat units [so far this season], we can also expect Fusarium to flare up. Fusarium was a big issue last season, and since there wasn’t enough sun to break it down, it has remained in the soil,” he explained.

A further concern is low grain prices, and Bester said that even with an above-average yield, farmers will struggle to break even.

Louw confirmed that unease over financial sustainability is mounting in the industry as grain prices have fallen over the past year. He described it as a ‘low margin, high risk’ situation for farmers, with input costs rising far above grain prices (see table).

“Internationally, grain prices are in a low cycle, and this, along with ample carryover stocks, adds to the low profit margins grain producers face,” he explained.