As former President Donald J Trump has now secured the Republican Party’s nomination for the 2024 US presidential election, the potential implications for Africa, particularly in terms of conflicts and terrorism, is a hot topic. Given Trump’s previous policies and rhetoric towards Africa, it is important to consider how his return to the White House could affect Africa’s security dynamics.
Trump’s first term was marked by a strong inclination towards isolationism, prioritising America’s interests over international engagements. Experts like Etse Sikanku, a senior lecturer at Accra’s University of Media, Arts and Communication, highlight that Trump’s inward-looking policies could lead to a reduced American presence in African affairs. This potential withdrawal from the international stage may weaken the multilateral systems that many African nations depend on to combat insurgencies and terrorism.
Priyal Singh from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria echoes this sentiment, suggesting that a retreat from global cooperation would be particularly detrimental to African countries facing security threats. Essentially, this could be interpreted as Africa potentially facing a rollback in multilateral cooperation, which has been crucial in countering insurgencies across the continent.
On counterterrorism approach and regional stability, when he was president, his critics might describe Trump as having adopted a heavy-handed counterterrorism strategy, characterised by increased drone strikes and aggressive military actions—targeted operations. While these tactics aimed at eliminating terrorist threats swiftly, they also risked fuelling further radicalisation among local populations. Researchers at ISS have pointed out that such an approach, if continued, could inadvertently serve as a recruitment tool for terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda and ISIS. The prospect of heightened military interventions without a parallel focus on addressing underlying socio-economic issues may exacerbate instability, complicating the security landscape in North and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Any potential reduction in US engagement could exacerbate instability in regions like North and Sub-Saharan Africa, where local governments face significant challenges in combating insurgencies. The absence of robust US support might embolden terrorist groups, leading to increased violence and regional instability. This withdrawal could create a vacuum that other global powers, such as China and Russia, might seek to fill, altering the balance of power in the region. The United States has historically played a critical role in supporting African countries’ security efforts, and its withdrawal could leave some countries vulnerable to the escalating threats posed by terrorist groups.
While the precise contours of a second Trump presidency remain speculative, it is clear that his approach to foreign policy and international engagement will have profound implications for Africa. The potential for reduced humanitarian aid, aggressive military tactics, and a retreat from multilateral cooperation could pose significant challenges for African countries. However, geopolitical necessities might compel some level of continued US engagement, particularly in response to the growing influence of China and Russia. As Africa navigates this uncertain landscape, it will be crucial for African leaders and stakeholders to proactively engage with global powers to safeguard the continent’s security and development interests.
As the world watches the unfolding US presidential race—and the nomination of Trump —African leaders and policymakers must prepare for the potential changes a Trump administration could bring. While strategic necessities may compel continued US involvement in Africa, the overall outlook suggests increased challenges for the continent’s security landscape. Reduced humanitarian aid, aggressive military policies, and a retreat from multilateral cooperation are significant concerns that require careful consideration and proactive measures to mitigate their impact.
Pearl Matibe is a Washington, DC-based foreign correspondent, and media commentator with expertise on US foreign policy and international security. You may follow her on Twitter: @PearlMatibe
