ADF STAFF
Tension already was bubbling in the Horn of Africa in late August when two desert-camouflaged Egyptian military cargo planes landed in the Somali capital of Mogadishu with weapons, ammunition and about 300 special forces commandos.
Dressed in full combat gear, the Soldiers stood in formation on the tarmac as an Egyptian official explained that these were the first of thousands of troops to come, mandated by a recently signed security agreement to equip and train Somali army units and help protect key government facilities and officials.
Egypt’s pledge to send thousands of Soldiers to Somalia is the latest sign of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa, but analysts remain hopeful a full-scale war can be averted.
Access to water lies at the heart of two disputes in the region.
Egypt and Ethiopia have spent more than 10 years jousting over the right to control the flow of the Nile River, while more recently Somalia and Ethiopia have been locked in a diplomatic row over a Red Sea port deal signed by Ethiopia and the breakaway territory of Somaliland, which Somalia considers part of its land.
But fruitless negotiations have given way to a new round of posturing and saber rattling.
South Sudanese analyst Duop Chak Wuol, who has written about East Africa for more than 11 years, is among the many experts who believe that war is unlikely for now.
“But there is a risk of indirect conflict,” he told ADF. “Egypt might use proxy tactics, such as supporting Somalia in its conflict with Somaliland, to disrupt Ethiopia’s access to seaports.
“This could lead to further actions against Ethiopia, possibly involving military operations targeting the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).”
Egypt and Ethiopia have become more vocal as regional rivals throughout their often-contentious talks surrounding Ethiopia’s massive dam project, which is nearly complete and has been generating electricity since 2022.
Egypt now reportedly has 1,000 commandos in Somalia and could deploy as many as 10,000 Soldiers in the coming months. It has pledged 5,000 troops to a new African Union stabilization force at the end of this year and could separately deploy another 4,000 commandos as part of its bilateral defense agreement with Somalia.
Ethiopia, no stranger to using its own military might to jockey for regional influence, responded with broad threats.
“Anyone intending to invade Ethiopia should think not just once but 10 times, because one great thing we Ethiopians know is [how] to defend ourselves,” Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a televised “Sovereignty Day” address on September 8.
“We usually embarrass and repel those who dare try to invade us.”
Egypt’s military cooperation deal with Somalia was the latest in a series of similar pacts it has signed with Nile basin and Horn of Africa countries as a way of pressuring Ethiopia off its stance in the GERD dispute.
“In Egypt you have friends and brothers you can depend on,” President Abdel Fattah El Sisi told Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in front of reporters during their August summit. “Egypt will not allow anyone to threaten Somalia or compromise its security.”
Somali officials insisted that the military equipment delivered will be used in the country’s fight against terrorist group al-Shabaab. But the increased posturing and rhetoric are causing fear for some form of conflict.
“If the Egyptians put boots on the ground and deploy troops along the border with Ethiopia, it could bring the two into direct confrontation,” Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the Horn of Africa-based Sahan Research think tank, told Reuters.
Achieving peaceful resolutions to both disputes will be challenging, Wuol said, as Egypt is loath to accept any changes to its Nile water consumption and thus far has clung to water treaties signed in 1929 and 1959.
“The aggressive rhetoric and military posturing among Egypt, Ethiopia and Somalia are risky and could lead to a larger regional conflict,” he warned. “It is essential for these nations to avoid inflammatory statements to prevent escalation.”
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