- For a country so crucial to the global energy transition, the world awaits DR Congo’s political transition.
- Congo’s political transition will be a massive factor in the significance of its massive natural resources in global energy transition needs.
- President Felix Tshisekedi, seeking a fresh mandate from the people, refers to Congo as the ‘solution country’ for the global climate crisis.
The Democratic Republic of Congo goes to the polls today to elect a president whose role will be vital in the global fight against climate change over the next five years. The Central African nation’s minerals, forests, and rivers are crucial to the future of green transition globally. Congo’s political transition will be a massive factor in the significance of these resources in global energy needs.
President Felix Tshisekedi, seeking a fresh mandate from the people, refers to Congo as the ‘solution country’ for the global climate crisis. However, he has only begun to make headway on significant energy and environmental matters. At stake is protecting one of the Earth’s largest carbon sinks, the creation of the world’s most significant hydropower projects and the mineral supply chain for electric vehicle batteries.
The Grand Inga hydropower project and carbon credits initiatives
Tshisekedi’s government has signed preliminary deals for the monumental Grand Inga hydropower project and carbon credits initiatives to conserve Congo’s forests. President Tshisekedi has tried to start a state company for cobalt trading, a key battery mineral. However, the 60-year-old president has to make the crucial decision to provide the basis for developing these resources for years to come.
Companies are clamouring to invest in carbon offsets generated from DRC’s rainforests, which capture nearly 822 million tonnes of greenhouse emissions annually, nearly twice as much as the UK’s yearly emissions. Nevertheless, the government must implement new regulatory frameworks to make the market functional.
President Tshisekedi has complicated the initiative by launching a bidding round for oil and gas exploration permits, some of which overlap with crucial ecosystems, to the dismay of environmental activists.
The President has supported his move as crucial in lifting the people of Congo out of poverty. His major rival in the election, businessman Moise Katumbi, has called for an end to oil and gas exploration within the Congo Basin. Moreover, Presidential candidate and Nobel Peace Prize winner Denis Mukwege is an open critic of the plan.
In the case of new leadership in the DRC, the process for awarding oil and gas permits will be reviewed, according to Christian-Geraud Neema Byamungu, a development economist and editor at the China-Global South Project.
Tshisekedi has also remained reluctant to kickstart the 40,000 megawatts Grand Inga hydropower project operations. His government signed a preliminary deal with Australia’s Fortescue Future Industries in 2020 to construct the site and produce green hydrogen. However, the two have not yet agreed on a common goal, with Fortescue threatening to pull out of the deal.
Inga could power the whole of the DRC and beyond. South Africa has long committed to buying sustainable energy from the mega project. Nevertheless, competing proposals that could rise to tens of billions of dollars have stalled developments.
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A decision on the global cobalt lead role
DRC’s next government must also decide what to do with its leading cobalt industry, accounting for about 70 per cent of global supply. Concerns about child labour, corruption and working conditions at informal cobalt mines have led to companies seeking alternative sources of the mineral or eliminating it from their batteries altogether.
Around 57 per cent of the EV cathode demand now emanates from battery chemistries with cobalt, down from over 70 per cent in 2018, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Still, the global cobalt demand is projected to double by 2030, the Cobalt Institute Industry Group observes. Currently, China, DRC’s largest trade partner, processes most of that metal by an order of magnitude.
According to Brian Bille, principal policy analyst at Benchmark, the demand for green energy minerals, including copper and cobalt, means the United States and the European Union have regained interest in the DRC and remain determined to counter the Chinese geopolitical clout in the region.
But without a plan to clean up the industry, the DRC risks missing out on gaining from its near monopoly cobalt position. And a Tshisekedi victory with no need to campaign for re-election could diminish his resolve to guarantee that mining revenue benefits all Congolese and not just a tiny elite, Neema Byamungu observes.
In a nation where political parties are centred around their leader, with the President locked from running for a third term, the question remains whether Tshisekedi will have any incentive to improve the mining sector’s governance or good governance in general.
The world’s awaits the DR Congo’s political transition
For a country so crucial to the global energy transition, the world awaits its clean and efficient potical transition, governance and stability in the next five years — things that have sorely lacked in a country the size of Western Europe and home to over 100 million people. The country has seen two civil wars and simmering conflict in its eastern regions for the past three decades. DRC has also repeatedly faced allegations of plundering and widespread graft.
Tshisekedi initially struggled to assert himself in DRC’s leadership, with Joseph Kabila, the former leader, still pulling the strings behind the scenes and the economy struck by the global pandemic. However, President Tshisekedi is now presiding over rapid economic transformation in the DRC.
Many have tipped the incumbent, who ascended to power in a disputed election five years ago, to win a second term after the opposition failed to rally behind one candidate, splitting the vote. Nevertheless, whoever will be in control of the DRC’s government faces daunting challenges. The leader must ensure an investment conducive to fighting climate change and safeguarding Congo’s lead role in the global energy transition. With its abundant resources and credible, strong governance, Congo has the potential to become an African powerhouse.
