Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief.
The highlights this week: Demonstrators hit the streets to protest food insecurity in Nigeria, an al Qaeda-linked group in Niger takes two Russian hostages, and Zimbabwe cracks down on pro-democracy activists.
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Nigerians Protest Rising Hunger
Thousands of Nigerians have been protesting across the country since Thursday, taking inspiration from weekslong protests in Kenya. Organizers called for 10 days of demonstrations aimed at forcing the government to address high living costs, state neglect, and worsening security.
Demonstrators argued that there was no indication from Nigeria’s political elite that they understand the issues of ordinary Nigerians and demanded a reversal of a set of economic reforms that President Bola Tinubu implemented last year.
“Give us stable electricity,” one of the placards at a Lagos protest read—referring to a situation in which almost half of Nigeria’s more than 210 million residents lack access to grid electricity, and those that do endure frequent power cuts.
Government-sponsored broadcasts had attempted to discourage citizens against protesting, warning that the effort “would be hijacked by hoodlums” and “endanger the lives of Nigerians.”
So far, at least 13 protesters across Nigeria have been killed by security forces, according to rights group Amnesty International. Civil rights groups have condemned widespread internet disruptions following demonstrations. Network providers blamed vandalism to underground cables, but citizens believe a blockade was put in place to disrupt organized marches.
“This is not the right time to be doing protest,” said Nigerian police spokesperson Muyiwa Adejobi. “We have a history of violent protests in Nigeria,” he added on Thursday, referring to the End SARS protests held against police brutality and extortion in October 2020, during which more than 50 people died, including many who were shot by security forces.
One demonstrator in Lagos told Foreign Policy he would “rather die on the streets protesting than die at home from hunger.” Although he is a graduate and a software programmer, he said he did not earn enough to feed or clothe his children. In Lagos’s luxury neighborhoods of Victoria Island and Lekki, roads were empty as citizens stayed home and businesses shuttered.
Tinubu on Sunday urged demonstrators to suspend marches and enter into dialogue with the government. “I have heard you loud and clear,” he said in a televised address. He claimed that he had reduced debt servicing from 97 percent of government revenue to 68 percent in the past 13 months through his reform policies.
Tinubu, a former Lagos governor, had inherited an economy near collapse. In defense of his reforms, he cited several new actions taken to address hardship, including the relaunch of a $70 million youth investment fund, the creation of grants for businesses, and a recent minimum wage increase from 30,000 naira (about $20) per month to 70,000 naira ($45) per month. But that wage increase is less than the cost of a 50-kilogram bag of rice—a staple in Nigeria that has seen its price rise from averages around 32,000 naira in February to 90,000 naira in August due to record headline inflation of nearly 35 percent. The government has announced that it would sell bags of rice at half price to civil servants in a further attempt to prevent marches.
Tinubu’s business-friendly reforms are welcomed by foreign investors and multinationals, several of whom had exited the country in recent years, but others argue that they have exacerbated endemic poverty and insecurity, particularly in the north.
In that part of the country, there has been a resurgence of suicide bombings by the terrorist group Boko Haram. Gasoline subsidies were partially removed, then reintroduced. The naira has undergone two devaluations alongside a hike in electricity costs. Nigerians say the changes have been implemented far too quickly in a country without social welfare that has suffered decades of state neglect and unemployment. In June, the World Bank approved a $2.25 billion loan to support Tinubu’s fiscal blueprint.
“These decisions I made were necessary if we must reverse the decades of economic mismanagement that didn’t serve us well,” Tinubu said.
Just as Kenyan protesters did last month, Nigerians argue that Tinubu should first cut his cabinet’s salaries and tackle state corruption. Demonstrations in Nairobi forced President William Ruto to abandon tax hikes and fire the majority of his cabinet last month.
In Nigeria, Tinubu’s 48-member cabinet is the largest in the country’s democratic history, and some observers argue that many members have been appointed on the basis of political cronyism. The Nigerian state budget keeps rising, while Nigerians are getting poorer. Last November, Tinubu approved an additional $38 million budget for the presidential air fleet, SUVs for lawmakers, and a renovation of the presidential villa.
In several major cities, security forces fired tear gas to disperse protesters. A 24-hour curfew was declared in four northern states after protesters looted state buildings and businesses late on Thursday. In the northern state of Kano, where protests are rare, police deployed tear gas, hot water, and live ammunition to disperse large crowds of demonstrators. Around 326 protesters were arrested in the state on charges of arson and looting, according to local authorities. A few northern protesters were observed carrying Russian flags, worrying state authorities. The Nigerian police force said it had arrested almost 80 people in Kano including foreign nationals accused of producing Russian flags.
Nigeria’s protests follow anti-government marches in Uganda and a high court-blocked protest in Ghana over living costs. Africa has the world’s youngest population, and many are highly educated but without jobs. Without proper state plans for job creation, manufacturing, and economic productivity, African leaders can expect further dissent by young people frustrated with unaccountable governments.
Friday, Aug. 9: Report due on the United Nations Support Mission in Libya.
Sunday, Aug. 11: Rwandan President Paul Kagame to be sworn in for a fourth term.
Monday, Aug. 12: U.N. Security Council debate on increasing Africa’s representation on the Council.
Russian hostages in Niger. A video released by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) appears to show two men claiming to be Russian nationals taken captive in Niger. JNIM, an armed group linked to al Qaeda, operates across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Both men said they were working for a Russian company in Mbanga, an area in the Tillaberi region where several gold mines are located. A security source in Niger told Reuters that the pair were taken about a week ago while visiting gold mines. The Russian Wagner mercenary group said last month that it had suffered heavy losses alongside Malian soldiers fighting Tuareg rebels and al Qaeda-linked fighters near Mali’s border with Algeria.
Famine in Sudan. Sudan’s military government on Sunday denied the existence of famine in North Darfur’s Zamzam camp for internally displaced people. A “man-made” famine was officially declared by the Famine Review Committee last week in the camp, which hosts about 500,000 people.
War broke out in Sudan between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) more than 15 months ago, and it has since displaced 25 million people—leaving half the country’s population in urgent need of humanitarian aid. “Our teams only have enough therapeutic food to treat malnourished children in Zamzam camp, Sudan, for another two weeks,” aid agency Doctors Without Borders posted on social media. Sudanese military leader Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has said he will not attend U.S.-led peace talks in Switzerland later this month after he survived an assassination attempt on July 30.
Ukraine-Africa diplomacy. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited three African nations this week in an effort to bolster support for Kyiv against Russian aggression. This is Kuleba’s fourth diplomatic tour to Africa in the past two years. His visit to Malawi, Zambia, and Mauritius is set to last until Thursday.
Elsewhere, Mali broke off diplomatic ties with Ukraine on Monday over Kyiv’s alleged support of Tuareg rebels. Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukrainian military intelligence, had said in a video last week that the rebels had been given the “necessary information” in fighting which killed dozens of Malian soldiers and Russian Wagner group mercenaries last month. The video was uploaded to the Ukraine embassy’s Facebook page and was subsequently deleted. Yusov’s comments “admitted Ukraine’s involvement in a cowardly, treacherous and barbaric attack by armed terrorist groups,” Malian government spokesman, colonel Abdoulaye Maiga, said in a statement.
Zimbabwe crackdowns. Zimbabwe police arrested 18 political activists last week ahead of its hosting of a meeting of southern African heads of state later this month. Among the activists arrested was Namatai Kwekweza, a 25-year-old pro-democracy campaigner and the inaugural winner of the Kofi Annan NextGen Democracy Prize in 2023. Kwekweza and three other activists were removed from a plane on the tarmac of the Robert Mugabe International Airport in the capital, Harare.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa, along with his wife and other politicians, were sanctioned by the United States earlier this year for alleged involvement in gold and diamond smuggling as well as human rights abuses.
Former Malian Prime Minister Moussa Mara said that he was renouncing his pension and would be paying his own bills starting at the end of August. Mara’s home, electricity, and cellphone bills are covered by the state on top of a monthly pension of 700,000 CFA (about $1,164). In a letter addressed to Prime Minister Choguel Kokalla Maiga, Mara said his decision was “motivated by my desire to relieve public finances and help direct our meager resources toward amenities more useful to our populations.”
Inflation in Nigeria is at a 28-year high after Tinubu allowed the naira to float freely against the U.S. dollar and not at a fixed rate. Nigeria manufactures very little and is heavily reliant on imports paid for in dollars. The naira has lost 70 percent of its value against the dollar since Tinubu took office in May 2023. Analysts say that there needs to be greater focus on local production of goods. Food inflation rose to more than 40 percent in June, according to the latest data released by the country’s statistics body.
FP’s Most Read This Week
Africa’s controversial credit ratings. A deep dive by Reuters examines whether African nations are being unfairly rated by Western global credit rating agencies. African leaders blame low ratings for expensive borrowing costs from overseas bond investors. But the African Union’s plans to establish an Africa-based credit rating agency may not have an impact since “most big investors are bound by regulations in their home countries or their own rules,” the authors write.
South Africa’s xenophobia. In Africa Is a Country, Fezokuhle Mthonti and Ayanda Charlie report on the online abuse that a beauty pageant contestant in South Africa has endured due to her multinational African heritage. Soweto-born Chidimma Adetshina has a Nigerian father and South African mother with Mozambican roots. The country, which is a magnet for migrants across the continent, has been plagued by violent xenophobia for more than a decade. The last major riots over the issue occurred in 2019 and killed at least 12 people.
