Militant Islamist groups in the Sahel are becoming increasingly deadly, with nearly 10 500 average annual deaths in the last three years – up from 4 900 a year between 2020 and 2023.
This is according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), which in a report said the figures represent a sevenfold increase in annual fatalities since 2019 (between 2016 and 2019, Sahel militants accounted for 927 average annual deaths).
“The pace and scale of violence in the Sahel is likely even higher than reported, given that the military juntas that seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have restricted media access within the region, which is the main source of conflict data,” the ACSS said.
Militant Islamist groups linked to the Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) network account for 83% of all fatalities in the Sahel. Led by the Macina Liberation Front and Ansar Dine, these JNIM groups primarily operate in north, central, and southern Mali and southern Burkina Faso. Comprising an estimated 6 000-7 000 fighters (the vast majority of whom are from the Sahel), these groups are also pushing into the border areas of the coastal West African countries.
The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) is the other main militant Islamist threat in this region, largely concentrated in northern Burkina Faso and western Niger. With an estimated 2 000-3 000 fighters, ISGS is both a rival to and cooperative with JNIM, the Center found.
For the last four years, Burkina Faso has been the epicentre of violent events and fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahelian theatre. In the past year, Burkina Faso accounted for 55% of these fatalities.
The deteriorating security situation in Burkina Faso is accompanied by a growing loss of territory to the militant groups. It is estimated that Burkinabe forces now only control 40% of national territory. Similar patterns are observed in Mali, with JNIM-linked forces intensifying operations in central regions of the country and attacking areas along the borders with Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Senegal, and Mauritania.
Mali was the original Sahelian country targeted by militant Islamist groups, including Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Ansar Dine, and MUJAO, starting in the late 2000s. Mali has endured an estimated 17 700 fatalities since then. Roughly 81% of those fatalities (14 384 deaths) have occurred since 2020 when Mali suffered a military coup. This includes an estimated 2 650 fatalities in the past year, accounting for 25% of all fatalities in the Sahel theatre, according to the ACSS.
Mali saw a 71% increase in remote violence fatalities (to 499) linked to JNIM groups over the past year. In addition to greater use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), this supports reports that JNIM has enhanced their access to drones—expanding the scale and scope of their threat to civilians and security forces in the region.
Civilians in Mali and Burkina Faso must also contend with predatory violence from security forces and Russian Wagner and Africa Corps paramilitaries. For the last four years, there have been a reported 1 292 such attacks, causing 6 058 fatalities. This exceeds the 5 708 civilian fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups in the two countries over this timeframe.
Malian and allied security forces were responsible for 82% of all civilian fatalities over the past year. In Burkina Faso the figure is 41%. The targeting of civilians (largely of the Fulani ethnic group) by Malian, Burkinabe, and Russian forces is unparalleled relative to any other region in Africa and is a key driver to JNIM recruitment, according to the ACSS.
“To capitalise on abuses by security forces, JNIM has portrayed itself as a defender of marginalized populations and disseminated videos of abuses by security forces to reinforce their lack of legitimacy and accountability.”
Niger has been experiencing a rapid deterioration in its security since the military coup against the democratic government of President Mahmoud Bazoum in 2023. Since that time, fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence have quadrupled (to 1 655 deaths). This includes a 49% increase in civilian deaths over the past year.
Niger has also experienced a 61% spike in battle-related fatalities, reflecting the growth in the frequency and scale of ISGS attacks on Nigerien security forces.
Indicative of the growing pressure on coastal West African countries, Benin saw a 129% increase in militant Islamist-linked fatalities over the past year (to 374)—a record high. Togo, similarly, saw a more than doubling of annual deaths (to 101), continuing an upswing of extremist violence in coastal West African countries since 2022, the ACSS found.
Due to the growing instability, the number of forcibly displaced people in the region is now over 3.5 million—a figure that is likely much higher given lack of independent reporting and the failure of military authorities in Burkina Faso to update these figures since 2023.
The Africa Center for Strategic Studies found that over the last decade, there were 155 000 fatalities due to militant Islamist groups across Africa, primarily in the Sahel, Somalia, Mozambique, North Africa, and Lake Chad Basin. Between 2019 and 2022 there were an average of 13 950 fatalities a year, before climbing to 22 315 fatalities a year between 2022 and 2025 across the continent.
