Crypto Wager Yields $436,000 After Maduro Seized. Photo Courtesy
Crypto Wager Yields $436,000 After Maduro Seized
An anonymous cryptocurrency trader made more than $436,000 after placing a wager on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the event was publicly confirmed, fuelling debate over possible use of inside information.
The bet was placed on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform that allows users to speculate on political and economic outcomes.
Hours before US President Donald Trump announced that Maduro had been captured, betting activity on the platform began to shift sharply.
Suspicious Timing Sparks Questions
According to Polymarket data, the odds that Maduro would be out of power by the end of January stood at just 6.5% on the afternoon of Friday, 2 January. Those odds rose to 11% by late evening and surged further in the early hours of 3 January.
Soon after, President Trump posted on Truth Social confirming that Maduro was in US custody.
One Polymarket account, created only last month, took four positions related exclusively to Venezuela. From a total stake of $32,537, the account earned more than $436,000 (£322,000).
The identity of the trader remains unknown. The account is linked only to an anonymous blockchain address made up of letters and numbers.
Crypto Wager Yields $436,000 After Maduro Seized
Allegations of Inside Knowledge
The timing of the trades has raised concerns among financial watchdogs and lawmakers. Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of financial reform group Better Markets, told CBS News that the wager showed “all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.”
Several other Polymarket users also reportedly earned tens of thousands of dollars from similar bets tied to Maduro’s capture.
Polymarket did not immediately respond to media requests for comment.
Lawmakers Move to Act
The incident has drawn attention on Capitol Hill. New York Congressman Ritchie Torres introduced legislation this week that would prohibit government employees from trading on prediction markets if they possess material, non-public information related to the outcome.
The bill aims to close regulatory gaps that currently exist in the fast-growing prediction market sector.
Growing Popularity, Limited Oversight
Prediction markets have expanded rapidly in the US, with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allowing bets on politics, economics, and major global events. The sector attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers during the 2024 US presidential election.
While insider trading is strictly regulated in traditional stock markets, prediction markets operate under lighter oversight.
The industry faced increased regulatory scrutiny during the Biden administration. However, it has seen a more favourable environment under President Trump. Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., holds advisory roles at both Kalshi and Polymarket.
Platforms Defend Their Rules
Kalshi has stated that it explicitly bans insider trading. A company spokesperson said the platform prohibits any trading by government employees based on confidential or non-public information related to government activity.
As prediction markets continue to grow, the Maduro wager is likely to intensify calls for clearer rules and stronger enforcement to prevent abuse.
