What if Russia’s first wave of missile strikes on Ukraine had been aimed at the UK instead?
That was the premise behind a high-fidelity simulation run by the British military, recreating the events of February 24, 2022 — the day Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Using its $32-million Gladiator simulation system, the UK created an artificial battlespace and deployed its most advanced air defense systems across virtual British terrain.
While officials have not disclosed the full outcome of the exercise, Air Commodore Blythe Crawford offered a sobering hint: the result was “not a pretty picture.”
The comment suggests that even with modern systems in place, Russian missiles could have breached UK defenses if such an assault were aimed at British soil.
“It was a stark lesson,” Crawford said. “We’ve stood for years at the western edge of Europe feeling as though the rest of the continent has stood between us and the enemy.”
‘A Wake-Up Call’
Crawford noted that the security landscape has shifted dramatically since 2022, with threats becoming more complex, multi-faceted, and harder to predict in real time.
“When you see swarms of hundreds of drones now operating in Ukraine, some of them decoys, some of them with munitions on board, the challenge is how do you tackle them all or do you tackle them all?” he added.
Although an attack on the UK would differ from Ukraine’s case — since Russian missiles would first have to cross European airspace — Crawford believes the simulation should serve as a “wake-up call” for Britain and its allies.
He also urged Western nations to study the war in Ukraine more closely and rethink the assumption that domestic soil is beyond reach.
“We in the UK over the last few decades have become focused on being garrison safe and making assumptions that we are safe to operate from the home base because most of the wars we’ve been fighting have been overseas,” Crawford pointed out.
“We need to reverse that thinking and assume that from here on, we’re under threat in the home base now as well.”
Despite the concerns raised, a spokesperson for the UK Ministry of Defence maintained that the country remains “fully prepared” to defend itself.
