Military gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces in Khartoum State may mean that there is an end in sight to the country’s two-year civil war, Sudanese Foreign Minister Ali Yusuf said recently.
Yusuf’s comments, made during a February 10 meeting in Egypt with foreign ambassadors and representatives of diplomatic missions in Sudan, came as the SAF gained ground in Kafouri Bahri, a stronghold of its rival, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The Army deployed warplanes and heavy artillery in Kafouri Bahri, which is 7 kilometers northeast of Khartoum, the capital.
Days before Yusuf spoke in Cairo, the SAF, led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, escalated its offensive in Khartoum, advancing from the southern and eastern outskirts of the city. Gen. Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo leads the rival RSF.
Talks aimed at ending the grinding war have failed.
“We insist on the implementation of the Jeddah Declaration as a condition for engaging in any future negotiations with the RSF,” Yusuf said in a report by Anadolu Agency. The declaration recognizes the obligations of both sides under international humanitarian and human rights law to facilitate humanitarian action to meet the emergency needs of civilians. The SAF also has made military gains in al-Jazirah State, where it has moved closer to Abu Quta, about 65 kilometers from where RSF forces are heavily concentrated.
In January, the SAF recaptured Wad Madani, the al-Jazirah capital. The retaking of Wad Madani, an agricultural and trading hub that was held by the RSF since December 2023, was considered a major win for the SAF. Allied groups, such as the Sudan Shield Forces, Al-Baraa bin Malik Brigades and Joint Darfur Force battalions, helped reclaim the strategic town.
The only major battles in Wad Madani were fought on the outskirts of the city. As the SAF advanced, the RSF retreated. The RSF’s retreat “was not voluntary,” Faisal Mohamed Saleh, Sudan’s former minister of information, wrote in the United Kingdom’s Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. “The Army’s multi-front assault and the inevitability of an impending defeat left the RSF with no choice.”
Hemedti acknowledged the defeat but vowed to keep fighting.
“We lost Wad Madani, but we will reclaim it,” he said in a speech. “People just need to regroup, reorganize and reassess themselves.”
These gains by the SAF lead Saleh to believe the war’s military power balance has shifted. The SAF spent much of 2024 regaining ground it had lost to the RSF earlier in the war. In Saleh’s view, the RSF is rapidly collapsing because it is overstretched. It simply does not have enough troops to secure the areas it occupied.
“The RSF’s strategy has been based on the assumption that the army lacked mobile infantry capable of rapidly moving into urban battles using light vehicles that could maneuver around slow-moving tanks and armored vehicles,” Saleh wrote.
The Sudanese Army has recruited thousands of new fighters, acquired large quantities of military vehicles and equipment, and gained a significant advantage by securing modern aircraft from allied nations, Saleh wrote. The Sudanese Air Force also has intensified its attacks on RSF sites, allowing infantry forces to advance on multiple fronts.
“The reality on the ground suggests that the RSF cannot remain in Khartoum and Al-Jazira,” according to Saleh. “Unless it deploys new reinforcements, it has no viable strategy, and that does not seem possible at this stage.”
In mid-February, the United Arab Emirates called for a ceasefire as Ramadan approached. The UAE supplies weapon to the RSF, and the SAF quickly rejected the proposal. Iran and Russia help supply the SAF.
“We do not accept a Ramadan ceasefire until the siege is broken on all cities and areas that are besieged,” a high-level Sudanese Army source told Reuters.
The RSF still controls much of western Sudan, where it has for months been fighting the SAF for control of El-Fasher, capital of North Darfur State. El-Fasher is the RSF’s last stronghold in the Darfur region.
In late January, a drone attack on the city’s only functioning hospital killed 70 people. The attack, blamed on the RSF, drew international condemnation. Both sides are accused of committing war crimes, including targeting civilians and indiscriminately shelling residential areas.
Sudan’s war has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced more than 12 million people, sparking what the United Nations has described as the world’s worst displacement crisis.
