ASML Q3 earnings delivered strong results for the third quarter of 2025, with the semiconductor equipment maker posting €7.5 billion in net sales and a 51.6% gross margin that beat expectations. The ASML Q3 earnings show net income of €2.1 billion, though revenue of €7.516 billion fell slightly short of the €7.79 billion analyst consensus. Right now, the ASML stock forecast is mixed as the company warns of significant China sales declines in 2026, and this has investors reassessing their positions on ASML stock heading into next year.
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Breaking Down ASML Q3 Earnings And Stock Forecast Amid China Sales Drop
Strong Margins Define ASML Q3 Earnings Results
ASML Q3 earnings 2025 showed a gross margin of 51.6% that exceeded expectations, and this fact indicated that the company retains operational strength though sales growth is experiencing a few headwinds. The company recorded quarterly net bookings of €5.4 billion, which included €3.6 billion of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems. For Q4, the company guided between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion in sales, which would represent approximately 15 percent of full year growth with a gross margin of 52%.
China Sales Warning Impacts ASML Stock Outlook
At the time of writing, ASML news today centers on the company’s 2026 guidance and what it means for investors. The firm stated it does not expect 2026 total net sales to fall below 2025 levels, but also warned that customer demand and sales in China will decline significantly next year compared to 2024 and 2025. This warning comes after shares dropped back in July when the company couldn’t confirm growth in 2026 due to increasing macro-economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
Both domestic export restrictions from the Netherlands and U.S. tariff policies have impacted the company and have made operations in certain markets more challenging. ASML recently became the most valuable listed firm in Europe, but investors now question the reliance on China sales—which have been very strong in 2024 and 2025—as a risk factor.
Analyst Views On ASML Stock Forecast
The ASML stock has received upgrades from Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Jefferies recently, showing that Wall Street remains largely positive. The consensus rating stands at “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” with average price targets ranging from $966 to $980 over the next 12 months. Price forecasts span from $767 to $1,175, showing varied expectations for ASML stock performance and reflecting different views on how the China situation plays out.
ASML news today also highlights that long-term demand drivers include AI expansion, energy transition needs, and semiconductor manufacturing growth by companies like Intel and TSMC. The ASML Q3 earnings highlight the company’s position to benefit from increased equipment demand, especially as ASML expects to benefit from Nvidia and Intel’s $5 billion deal. Concerns about growth slowdown beyond 2026 persist though, due to China sales pressure and geopolitical factors that remain unresolved.
Capital Returns And Future Outlook
Analysts watch the ASML stock forecast for 2025 and beyond closely and point to better-than-expected smartphone and PC sales along with AI-led memory growth as positive signals. Cash and short-term investments fell to €5.1 billion at quarter end, and the €12 billion buyback program will not complete within its originally planned 2022–2025 window. The company will pay an interim dividend of €1.60 per share on November 6, 2025, and expects to announce a new buyback program in January 2026.
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The key items to watch over the coming months include whether Q4 revenue hits the guidance targets, what the detailed 2026 outlook looks like when it’s released in January, and any further updates on China demand trends that could shift the ASML Q3 earnings trajectory going forward.
