In its World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provides persuasive insight: encouraging young individuals to migrate from low-income countries to aging advanced economies, which could balance the global labor supply.
Increased lifespan and lower birth rates are changing the demographic structure of advanced and stronger emerging markets.
Since the turn of the century, these countries’ old-age dependence ratios have risen dramatically, from 20 older persons for every 100 working-age people to a projected 50 by 2050.
This means that by the middle of the century, for every two persons of working age, one will be above the age of 65.
In contrast, many low-income countries are experiencing the opposite demographic phenomenon: a youth bulge.
These countries are still in the early phases of demographic shifts, characterized by high birth rates and large batches of young people entering the labor force.
However, this young enthusiasm is frequently suppressed by structural barriers. Many young people find it difficult to find meaningful or secure work due to high levels of informal employment, poor labor markets, and minimal social safeguards.
The IMF’s win-win demographic solution
The IMF proposes a potent solution: redirecting teenage labor from low-income nations to aging advanced economies. Facilitated migration may be a type of global resource reallocation that helps both ends of the demographic spectrum.
“This imbalance of labor supply, between youth-poor and youth-rich countries, can be partly alleviated by a flow of younger migrants and refugees into aging countries,” the IMF’s recent report states.
“Such a global resource reallocation could simultaneously ease the economic pressures from a smaller labor force in destination economies and a lack of opportunities in origin economies,” it adds.
Of course, making this vision a reality necessitates deliberate and concerted measures.
Destination nations must establish immigration policies that integrate young migrants into their labor markets and society.
Simultaneously, origin nations must manage migration in ways that promote long-term development, such as returnee education, training, and reintegration programs.
“However, these potential gains in a world of asynchronous aging hinge on a market-based match between the skills of young migrants and the youth-intensive comparative advantages of destination economies.
Migration policies can support or hinder the redistribution of young workers by affecting individuals’ ability to move to countries where their skills are most needed,” the report states.
In an era of rising global interconnection and demographic reliance, migration could be viewed as a strategic opportunity rather than a danger.
