South African agriculture posted a surprisingly strong third-quarter performance in 2025, rebounding from two years of contraction. Economists note that, although growth came off a low base, the recovery still represents a meaningful shift for the sector.
According to Statistics South Africa’s GDP report for the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, agricultural gross value added expanded by 1,1% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) and a substantial 49,9% year-on-year (y/y), making Q3 one of the strongest quarters in recent years, despite it historically being a weak production period.
Speaking to Farmer’s Weekly, agricultural economist and Red Meat Producers’ Organisation CEO Dr Frikkie Maré said the sector’s performance needs to be viewed in context. Over the past two years, Q3 growth contracted sharply, falling by 19% to 28% q/q.
“This year’s growth came off a very low base, so the figure appears stronger than it actually is. But compared with the past two years, Q3 2025 is a clear improvement,” he said.
Maré added that the livestock industry, particularly red meat, played a major role in the positive GDP figure.
Commodity prices increased by between 20% and 30% y/y, despite slightly lower output. “Prices have only now returned to 2018 levels after years of suppressed returns. That price correction helped lift overall agricultural GDP,” he said.
Grains, citrus, and vegetables strengthen Q3 output
Thabile Nkunjana, senior economist at the National Agricultural Marketing Council, said the greater sector benefitted from a strong recovery in field crops and horticulture following improved rainfall.
Key highlights included:
- 203 million cartons of citrus exported, which is a new record
- 16,4 million tons of maize harvested, the second-largest maize crop in South African history
- 20,2 million tons of grains and oilseeds produced in total, up 30% from last year due to favourable La Niña rains
- “These harvests lifted the sector at a time when livestock continues to struggle,” Nkunjana said. He added that the country’s agricultural exports reached US$4,7 billion (around R80 billion) in Q3, up by around 26% from Q2’s $3,71 billion (around R63 billion).
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo mentioned in his recent newsletter that the performance of grains, fruit, wine and vegetables helped buffer the impact of the livestock sector’s ongoing challenges.
Livestock industry still under pressure
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) continues to weigh heavily on the cattle industry, with ripple effects across the broader sector. Maré said FMD creates supply chain bottlenecks and costly delays.
“Producers lose market access during quarantine periods, and animals must be fed longer before slaughter, pushing up costs,” he explained.
Although South Africa’s export destinations remain open, with the exception of China, several large exporters were unable to ship products because their own abattoirs and feedlots reported FMD cases.
“This means that while the export market didn’t close officially, exporters themselves could not participate,” Maré added.
Mixed recovery expected for full-year results
Nkunjana added that despite Q3’s strong showing, agriculture remains seasonal. “Quarter-to-quarter comparisons can be misleading. The full-year performance will give a more accurate picture,” he explained.
He also highlighted key risks that could influence Q4 and early 2026:
- High tariffs on exports to the US and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the African Growth and Opportunity Act
- Geopolitical tensions affecting global trade
- La Niña rainfall, which could damage crops in northern provinces
Maré said domestic demand could improve if interest rates stabilise and the economy grows.
“If we can vaccinate [the national herd] effectively, restore exports, and stabilise supply, 2026 could be a good year,” he said.
Sihlobo added that continued La Niña rainfall will support strong summer crop production, although livestock remains the sector’s ‘weak link’.
“The recovery in 2025 is uneven, but the overall direction is positive,” he added.
