Agricultural growth likely to slow in 2026

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“The impact of the US tariffs was notable, and in many instances, there was little time to react. Although only 4% of total [agricultural] exports goes to the US, the value is substantial and the impact in the Western Cape was notable,” Rossouw said.

He added that, looking at 2026, it is important for farmers and businesses alike to focus on putting long-term plans in place. “We need to anticipate what is likely to happen in 2026 and devise plans and strategies accordingly.”

According to Rossouw, lessons learnt in 2025 show that cooperation between organised agriculture, industry, business, and government is necessary to address the challenges ahead.

“A collective industry perspective is crucial if solutions for challenges such as biosecurity and global trade are to be found.”

He stressed that farmers need to spend time coming up with long-term plans: ”Ten- and five-year plans are crucial to position your business not only to survive but for future growth. Planning is the catalyst for growth.”

Trends that shaped the sector in 2025 

Looking at the trends that shaped the agriculture sector and its performance last year, Tracy Davids, a director at the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy, said production patterns in the likes of horticulture, grains, and animal production; the impact of trade tariffs; market dynamics; and major challenges faced by agribusinesses all have an impact on growth and economic performance.

She added that when measuring agricultural performance, it is more than just GDP that is taken into consideration: “Although primary agriculture represents only 3% of GDP, the total value chain, including support services, is closer to 14%.”

Davids pointed out that agriculture contributes to international trade, and that exports for 2025 amounted to US$13,3 billion (around R220,8 billion). “Agriculture also contributes to employment, with the sector contributing 5% and agro-processing 3%.”

She further noted that agriculture contributes to the affordability and availability of nutritious food products and thus food security.

Despite the challenges experienced in 2025, the sector exceeded early expectations. According to Davids, the key factors that had a positive influence on performance were:

• Favourable weather across much of the country, resulting in strong summer crop recovery and exceptional fruit harvests and exports
• Higher international meat and fruit prices
• US tariff relief
• Improved input costs
• Phenomenal citrus exports, with large volumes and strong prices

In contrast, the sector was negatively affected by:

• Widespread foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks, which caused havoc in the beef industry
• Uncertainty around US tariff adjustments
• Some input costs remaining high and above inflation, including electricity and labour
• Infrastructural challenges with water, roads, and ports

According to Davids, horticulture products at the core of the country’s good export position include citrus, grapes, pome fruit, nuts, and berries.

“Although citrus showed the biggest gain, some of the other industries also performed well. But despite uncertainty, South Africa did manage to increase citrus shipments to the US in 2025.”

She noted that growth was predominantly driven by volume growth, while prices held steady. However, she mentioned that the subtropical fruit industry showed somewhat of a downfall.

“Peru competed directly with South Africa with regard to avocado exports in Europe, resulting in a slight decline in exports and prices.”

Regarding maize, Davids said production recovered and even increased after the 2024 drought, while prices also held up given the need to rebuild stocks after the drawdown in 2024.

Noting the difference in various grain prices when comparing 2024 with 2025, she said white maize showed a 10% decrease while yellow showed a slight increase of 0,3%. The soya bean price was down 11,7%, while sunflower and wheat were 4,3% and 1,4%, respectively.

Ongoing risks

Davids pointed out, however, that several risks remain in 2026:

• Continued animal disease challenges
• Infrastructure constraints
• Increasingly complex international trade
• Extreme weather
• Exchange rate volatility

Speaking during the webinar, independent agricultural meteorologist Johan van den Berg focused on the impact the weather might have on the 2026 agriculture season. He discussed how climate patterns such as El Niño and La Niña may influence crop yields, livestock management, and the overall resilience of the agriculture sector.

He pointed out that when discussing climate change, people should realise that it is very complex and refers to much more than just rising temperatures.

Van den Berg stated that 2025 was the third-warmest year on record and noted that, since 1940, global annual surface air temperatures have been rising above pre-industrial levels.

“The average temperature increase from 2023 to 2025 was above 1,5 °C,” he added, noting that the rise is more pronounced in the northern hemisphere.

He warned, however, that it is dangerous to say it is getting warmer without looking at the overall picture: “Although temperatures are rising, there are other aspects that also come into play. Another consequence of changing weather is unpredictable weather patterns.”

He mentioned that rain patterns are changing: over the past couple of decades, rainfall in South Africa’s summer rainfall areas has declined from June to December, contributing to reduced winter wheat production.

Conversely, he noted that rainfall appears to be increasing from January to April, resulting in heavier midsummer storms over shorter periods.

Van den Berg said the second half of the summer rainfall season currently looks drier, posing a serious risk to summer grain crops in the central and western regions.

“A weakening La Niña influence, followed by a transition toward neutral and then an El Niño-like pattern later in the season,” he added.

He advised farmers to monitor water carefully: “Farmers should plan each year as if a drought is coming. It is essential to consider nature’s cycles and prepare for both dry and wet years well in advance.”

He further advised farmers to preserve soil moisture by following a fallowing system and to adjust stock numbers according to the veld’s long-term carrying capacity.

What lies ahead in 2026

Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo unpacked the opportunities and challenges for the agriculture sector in the year ahead. His presentation aimed to provide an understanding of market dynamics, policy shifts, trade tariffs, and strategies for driving sustainable growth.

He said that after falling for two consecutive quarters, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) increased by five points to 67 in the fourth quarter of 2025. He added that 67 is well above the neutral 50-point mark, suggesting that South African agribusinesses are generally optimistic about business conditions in the country.

“Favourable weather conditions, strong exports throughout the year on the back of ample grain, oilseed, and horticulture harvests, and better port efficiencies are among the key drivers of optimism in the sector,” Sihlobo noted.

“We suspect that the announcement of the nationwide vaccination of cattle against FMD also contributed to the upbeat mood, as the disease is a national challenge that, for some time, seemed out of control.

Sihlobo shared optimism for growth in 2026, albeit slower than last year, based on the country’s agricultural export performance.

“The outlook for the 2025/26 production season is fairly positive. Agriculture will likely show an uneven recovery in 2026, with most subsectors showing improvements while the livestock industry may remain under pressure.”

He pointed out the key faultlines in the global economy:

• Geopolitical conflicts and tensions in Europe and Africa
• Tariffs and prolonged trade policy uncertainty
• Federal Reserve leadership and central bank independence
• Rising debt levels and higher sovereign borrowing costs

Sihlobo is of the opinion that trade matters will continue to dominate conversations and that economic diplomacy with a sharper focus on trade will not only assist agriculture but will likely benefit the automotive industry, too, which is critical for the Eastern Cape’s economy.

He added that agriculture can play an important role in sustaining rural communities, but at the same time stressed that a coordinated effort is needed to address challenges such as biosecurity, improving municipal management, tackling rural crime, and releasing government-owned land to appropriately selected beneficiaries.

“Collaboration should be at the heart of any intervention to resolve challenges. Moreover, the biosecurity efforts should not be limited to livestock and poultry but also branch out to plant health.”

Sihlobo concluded by saying that, ultimately, the success of South Africa’s agriculture sector lies in delivering food security and the creation of millions of jobs.