AGOA extended by a year, sparking new concern for agri exporters

– ADVERTISEMENT –

Trump signed the extension into law on 3 February, renewing AGOA retroactively from its expiry date of 30 September 2025 until 31 December 2026. US Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer confirmed the move.

South African Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau has since raised concerns about the ‘short nature’ of the extension and its implications for long-term trade planning.

Originally enacted in 2000, AGOA provides eligible African countries with duty-free access to the US market for a range of products, including agricultural goods. For South Africa, the programme has played a significant role in supporting export-oriented and labour-intensive agricultural value chains.

Investment uncertainty weighs on agriculture

Speaking to Farmer’s Weekly, Thabile Nkunjana, a senior economist in the National Agricultural Marketing Council’s Trade Research Unit, commented on AGOA’s impact.

“Due in great part to producers’ desire to gain duty-free access to the US market, the Western Cape’s citrus industry has grown rapidly. Because of AGOA, billions of rands have been invested in orchards, nets, and logistics since the early 2000s.

“A one-year extension is still preferable to nothing, but the current tensions are likely to negatively affect long-term investments across the sector,” he said.

Nkunjana added that under AGOA, South Africa exports more than 20 agricultural product categories to the US. However, only a limited basket of products will meaningfully benefit from the extension, while a 30% tariff still applies to most goods.

“[The products that will benefit from the extension] include macadamia nuts in shell, oranges, citrus juices, fruit jams, fruit jellies, litchis, and granadillas. These products account for about 25% of the roughly R10 billion in agricultural goods South Africa exported to the US in 2024,” he explained.

Citrus sector faces mixed tariff outcomes

Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele, CEO of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa, said that while the extension is welcome, it does not change current market access conditions for South African citrus exports.

“The current legal understanding is that the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the White House override AGOA. However, in November last year, oranges received a tariff exemption, which means our oranges can enter the US tariff-free. This provides some welcome relief to growers,” he explained.

He added that mandarins are not exempt from the tariffs, which is a growing concern for mandarin growers in the Western and Northern Cape for the 2026 season.

According to him, the extension has not affected growers’ production or export plans, as the trade environment remains fluid and uncertain.

He warned that prolonged uncertainty could eventually affect investment decisions in orchards, packhouses, and export infrastructure.

Ntshabele added that unimpeded access to the US citrus market remains critical for job creation and rural livelihoods in South Africa.

“Only the Western and Northern Cape can export citrus to the US, and growers supplying this market are highly concentrated in these provinces. Entire communities depend on US exports, with Citrusdal being a clear example.”

Nkunjana added that broader political tensions between South Africa and the US could influence buyer behaviour.

“Some US importers may look for alternative suppliers, but given the quality and reputation of South African agricultural products, particularly fruit, this extension still offers benefits for both US consumers and South African farmers,” he explained.

Labour-intensive sectors most vulnerable

Simóhn Engelbrecht, AgriSA’s trade and relations officer, said farmers appreciate the extension but remain concerned about the lack of long-term certainty.

“A one-year extension does not necessarily provide the certainty required for major investment and expansion decisions,” she told Farmer’s Weekly.

She added that export-oriented and labour-intensive sectors like citrus, table grapes, wine, fruit juices, nuts, and ostrich products are the most exposed to the uncertainty of a short-term extension.

“These value chains support thousands of direct and indirect jobs in rural areas. Short extensions limit long-term planning and investment, which can constrain job creation and slow rural economic growth.

She added that AgriSA continues to encourage farmers to diversify export markets, build long-term buyer relationships, and engage government on stable market access.

Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said in a newsletter that the extension is critical, despite its limitations. He explained that without AGOA, some South African agricultural exports could have faced tariffs of around 33%, including most-favoured-nation and so-called Liberation Day tariffs.

Sihlobo said South Africa’s total agricultural exports, including products currently exposed to tariffs and those that remain tariff-exempt, were valued at US$13,7 billion (R252 billion) in 2024. The US accounted for about 4% of this total.

He added that the US remains an important market for specific industries, including citrus, wine, fruit juices and nuts, despite exports cooling in the third quarter of 2025.