ADF STAFF
In the weeks after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, satellite images told the story of a reeling Russian military withdrawing from its once-prized Mediterranean bases.
Two Antonov AN-124 cargo planes with their nose cones open prepared to load, as dozens of vehicles lined up on the tarmac at Khmeimim air base, which served as Russia’s Syrian air bridge to Africa for many years.
Daily air traffic from Syria to Libya increased significantly, as Russian and ousted Syrian officials scrambled to find refuge for now-homeless Russian naval vessels. In southern Libya, satellite photos show Russian mercenaries building and expanding logistical bases near the borders of Chad and Sudan.
Experts said Russia’s bases in Syria were the key to its mercenary activity and other projects in Africa. Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attention has turned to Libya.
“Having supported the deposed dictator [Assad] for nine years, it is likely that the new authority in Damascus will ask Moscow to evacuate its military from Syria,” Mustafa Fetouri wrote for media research organization the Middle East Monitor in December 2024. “Moscow is certainly keen to find an alternative to Syria, and every indication says Libya is likely to be that option.”
Facing exile from its strongholds in Syria, Russia is desperately seeking to relocate its presence in the Mediterranean Sea region and already is busy trying to establish Libya as its new gateway to Africa.
Chris Stephen, an analyst with the Center for European Policy Analysis, called Africa “the one continent where Moscow still has leverage.” However, he warned that Libya’s deep divides have made the country as unstable as Syria.
“Without ports and airports to supply it, Russia’s imperial mission in Africa may become as ill-fated as its failed intervention in Syria,” he wrote on January 9. “Russia’s prestige is sinking. Putin has been made to look a fool with his Ukraine invasion. … Now Moscow has tasted another humiliating defeat in Syria, its forces there too puny to prevent Assad from being ousted by Turkish-backed rebels.”
Russia’s military ties with Libya run primarily through Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and his Libyan National Army (LNA), which it supplied with Wagner Group mercenaries, attack planes and arms. Until a 2020 ceasefire, the LNA fought a six-year civil war with the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA), which was armed by Turkey.
Because Haftar is still at odds with the United Nations-backed GNA, Russia’s plans and pacts are neither sanctioned by the internationally recognized Libyan state nor approved by the parliament, which is based in Haftar-controlled Tobruk.
The Russian Ministry of Defense, through its rebranded mercenary Africa Corps, is planning to build a naval base in Tobruk and aims to use Libya as its headquarters to continue tapping the Central African Republic, Mali, Niger and Sudan for gold, uranium and other natural resources.
Tarek Megerisi, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said Russia’s move to Libya is bad news for ongoing conflicts in Sudan and the Sahel.
“A lot of the equipment that comes to Libya ends up going to other theaters where there is active combat, so we might see an escalation in those regions in the future,” he told France 24.
Another complication for the Kremlin is Libya’s lack of deep-water facilities. The base in Tobruk would need major work to accommodate Russia’s largest naval assets that are still in limbo in Syria.
“Tobruk in Libya is an option, but it does not offer the same degree of stability as Tartus under the Assad regime,” Basil Germond, professor of international security at Lancaster University, told The i Paper. “Also, it is closer to the African theaters where Russian troops operate but farther away from Russia in terms of air transport to and from the base.
“Russia was already at its weakest in naval terms, but the fall of Assad is putting even more pressure on Moscowʼs limited naval projection capabilities.”
The Kremlin’s pivot to Libya even has some Russian military bloggers questioning whether it is repeating the same mistakes that were made in Syria.
“Libya is a risky place,” Fetouri wrote. “The whole Russia-Haftar dealings have been a kind of Haftar family private business. Should Haftar end up like Assad, then whatever Moscow has invested in him would be gone.”
