Global oil demand is expected to plateau at around 105.5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Between now and then, annual growth is projected to slow significantly.
Yet Africa’s frontier basins offer compelling value, hosting some of the most promising exploration plays globally.
While established producers such as Nigeria, Algeria, Libya and Angola are introducing fiscal reforms to address declining production from mature hydrocarbon basins, high‑impact exploration efforts elsewhere suggest the continent’s oil story is not ending any time soon, but rather shifting to new frontier markets.
There is vast untapped potential for complex Cretaceous plays in West Africa, and countries such as Liberia, Sierra Leone and Niger are taking bold steps towards commercialising new discoveries, even though the path has not been smooth.
Since 2011, major oil companies—supported by extensive new 3D seismic data—have been targeting the region’s Cretaceous basins for their untapped reserves, particularly deep‑water prospects across Sierra Leone, Liberia and the wider MSGBC basin.
Although their campaigns have yielded up to 13 billion barrels of oil equivalent, most of the high‑impact wells drilled over the years have not been commercialised due to persistent challenges.
Wood Mackenzie says “over 50% of the discovered resources in the region remain sub‑commercial because of low reservoir permeability as well as the lack of viable markets and infrastructure.”
With recent data projecting more than a 5% rise in oil production from West Africa, which of Niger, Liberia or Sierra Leone is best positioned to emerge as the next frontier?
Niger: The desert oil gambit
Niger is a landlocked country in West Africa with relatively modest oil reserves compared with regional giants such as Nigeria.
The proven oil reserve is estimated at approximately 1 billion barrels, distributed across the western basin (Ullémenden, Tamesna) and the eastern basin (the Graben system in Djado). These large sedimentary basins together cover over 90% of Niger’s national territory.
Oil exploration began in the former French colony in the 1970s, but commercial production only commenced in 2011 in the south‑east of the Agadem block, located about 100 kilometres from the Chad border. The block is operated by China National Petroleum Company (CNPC) and is the sole supplier to the Zinder refinery.
CNPC is the largest investor in Niger’s oil industry. It has funded several exploration campaigns that yielded 166 wells between 2008 and 2017. This alone enabled the discovery of 106 new oil deposits and boosted the country’s 2P recoverable reserves by 815 million barrels.
The petroleum in Niger is high quality, with an API gravity of 30 degrees and a very low sulphur content. Drilling costs are relatively low, and the success rate exceeds 90%.
The country says it offers a favourable business environment to its oil investors, with an attractive fiscal regime.
The major operators in Niger’s oil industry include CNPC, state‑owned Sonidep, Taiwanese state‑owned CPC, Sonatrach and Savannah Energy, with the last two reportedly spending heavily on exploration over the past four years.
Over the years, Niger’s production has increased from 20,000 bpd in 2011 to an all‑time high of about 108,000 bpd as of July 2025.
Sierra Leone: The big discovery buzz
Sierra Leone has not yet achieved commercial oil production. To date, seismic surveys have been conducted, but no confirmed discoveries have been brought into production.
Exploration activities began as far back as the mid‑1980s. The government estimates that the country holds around 30 billion barrels of oil equivalent and up to 25 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas in reserve.
Of this, between 15 and 20 billion barrels of oil are considered recoverable and, according to the Petroleum Directorate, must be urgently brought to the surface.
In November 2025, Italian energy giant Eni made progress in offshore exploration, attracting renewed interest from other international oil companies. The company signed a Reconnaissance Permit Agreement with the Sierra Leonean government for five offshore blocks, covering a total area of 6,790 square kilometres.
This marks the first time the Italian major has entered Sierra Leone’s oil industry, validating a high‑risk, high‑reward offshore acquisition that could aid reserve replacement in the next cycle. A wildcat drill on the promising acreage could take place as early as 2026, Upstream Online reports.
Over the past 16 years, Sierra Leone has held five offshore block licensing rounds, but none produced binding agreements despite its geological potential.
The last round was held in 2022. However, the sixth round is expected to be different, thanks to significant improvements in seismic imaging and more favourable fiscal regimes in recent years.
The government is also investing heavily in advanced seismic mapping across many offshore prospects to support future drilling activities, and is actively seeking partnerships with majors such as Anadarko and Lukoil in new licensing rounds.
In October, the Director General of the Petroleum Directorate of Sierra Leone, Foday Mansaray, said at the Russian Energy Week in Moscow: “We are here to have conversations with companies like Lukoil and other Russian IOCs to form great partnerships for Russian companies to come into Sierra Leone to help us unlock what we do have.”
However, this support is no longer feasible, as Western sanctions continue to restrict the international operations of Russia’s key energy companies, including Lukoil, Rosneft and Gazprom.
Liberia: The deepwater of promises
Liberia possesses significant deepwater potential, with terrains stretching between 2,500 and 4,500 metres, but it has yet to make a commercial oil discovery.
Over the past two years, however, the country’s oil industry has experienced a major resurgence in upstream activities, as the government successfully attracted global energy giants back to its offshore basins.
After more than a decade of near‑dormancy, Liberia signed landmark deals in late 2025 to restart offshore drilling.
In September 2025, TotalEnergies signed four Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) for blocks LB‑6, LB‑11, LB‑17 and LB‑29. These cover 12,700 square kilometres in the southern Liberia Basin and include commitments for 3D seismic surveys.
TotalEnergies’ Vice President (Exploration), Kelvin McLachlan, said the company will leverage its proven expertise in deepwater operations to explore these areas, which “hold significant potential for large‑scale discoveries.”
Shortly after the TotalEnergies deal, Atlas Oranto Petroleum secured four separate blocks. These awards followed a strategic 2024 licensing round managed by the Liberia Petroleum Regulatory Authority (LPRA), which offered 29 offshore blocks to investors through direct negotiations. The exercise is expected to yield up to 1 billion barrels by 2035.
Liberia’s oil sector is regulated by two key agencies: the LPRA and the National Oil Company of Liberia (NOCAL). The LPRA manages regulation, policy and the granting of petroleum rights, while NOCAL oversees exploration and development.
The country currently has no functioning refinery and imports all refined petroleum products through the Liberia Petroleum Refining Company (LPRC).
President Joseph Boakai has framed the oil revival as a pillar of his “ARREST” development agenda. The government expects these new oil and mining deals to draw approximately $4.8 billion in total investment, potentially boosting GDP growth to 6% by 2026.
What will matter to investors in these frontiers?
Together, these countries hold massive hydrocarbon resources and potential for longer plateau production. They could not only transform their economies but also emerge as reliable suppliers to Europe and Asia, particularly as persisting geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf continue to jolt global energy markets.
However, despite the existence of promising plays, entering these geographies requires more than technical confidence. Until recently in Liberia, several international oil companies—including ExxonMobil, Anadarko and Chevron—that once explored the country’s offshore basins withdrew, either due to technical challenges or poor prospects at the time.
Governments must recognise that above‑ground factors are just as important as below‑ground potential. These plays must compete not only on volume, but also on cost, emissions profile and strategic fit.
Companies will need to assess and navigate complex regulatory environments, especially where capital discipline and emissions intensity are under scrutiny.
Another concern is the lack of critical oil infrastructure. This will require huge capital investments for countries such as Liberia and Sierra Leone, unlike Niger, which already hosts the Niger‑Benin Export Pipeline.
The pipeline network—the longest such infrastructure in Africa—runs for 1,950 kilometres, connecting Niger’s Agadem Basin to the Benin coast, from where tens of thousands of barrels of oil are exported daily. The project, led by CNPC, began commercial operations in 2024.
NJ Ayuk, Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, said of the pipeline: “Niger has significant potential to become a major crude exporter,” while warning that the country still requires significant upstream investment to fully utilise the infrastructure.
Sierra Leone remains at the early exploration stage, with uncertainty over commercial viability. For invested operators such as Eni, early‑stage optionality matters more than near‑term volumes. Success would extend production life and support free cash flow over the years.
The long and short of it
These West African countries have the potential to become the next frontier oil markets in Africa. Niger is the closest to scaling production, but remains vulnerable to politics and geography.
Liberia has made steady progress with IOC backing, yet the path to production is slow, as the country faces a long journey from exploration to output amid significant infrastructure gaps.
Sierra Leone could also prove to be a game‑changer if reserves are confirmed as commercial, but for now, that remains speculative.
Overall, Sylvester Ogbolu‑Otutu, a natural resources policy and development finance strategist, said these countries “need predictable oil and gas policy frameworks” if they are to succeed.
This is because frontier assets follow a long path: seismic surveys, appraisal, and then final investment decisions. Investors view such projects as multi‑year undertakings without immediate barrels, which is why a clear and predictable fiscal regime is essential to attract major operators.
There is also concern about potential over‑dependence on oil for foreign exchange earnings, as has been seen in other countries such as Nigeria.
Oil contributes around 5–10% of Niger’s GDP. The government considers this relatively small (compared to other sectors like agriculture and mining) and has begun doubling down on the sector.
While this is expected to significantly boost government revenues, the World Bank Group has warned against over‑reliance on the resource.
“While oil production and exports are expected to boost government revenues, it will also increase the volatility of growth,” said Mahama Bandaogo, Senior Economist at the World Bank.
“…it is a finite resource, and Niger’s oil reserves are expected to begin declining in the mid‑2030s if there are no new discoveries. It is therefore crucial to focus on increasing productivity by investing in other sectors,” he said.
Niger, Africa’s sixth‑largest country by landmass, also faces risks that expose its vulnerability.
There is lingering instability from armed groups in the eastern region, as well as heavy reliance on Chinese investment, which continues to raise concerns about sovereignty and revenue sharing.
