Analyst house Canalys revealed that the African smartphone market grew by 3% year-on-year in Q3 2024 despite macroeconomic challenges. It predicted that smartphone shipments would grow by a “cautious” 1% in 2025.
In the third quarter, 18.4 million units were shipped, “reflecting resilience amid a complex economic landscape.” Currencies on the continent have fluctuated in value but have shown signs of stabilisation as price pressures eased in certain regions. However, inflation, energy volatility, and low consumer demand persist, the report detailed.
The future of Africa’s smartphone market “hinges on” governments and vendors addressing these “structural hurdles.”
Egypt was highlighted as it led growth on the continent with a 34% increase in shipments for the third consecutive quarter, boosting its position as the fastest-recovering African market. The resurgence in Egypt was attributed to localised production, which “drastically” reduced reliance on imports and slashed the smartphone import bill by 99% to US$1.65 million in H1 2024 from 2021.
However, in Nigeria, the second-largest shipment driver in Africa, the Naira plunged in value by 69.9% between January and September, hamstringing spending power as the country recorded only 1% growth in Q3. South Africa saw a sharp decline of 10% as economic uncertainties dampened consumer spending, despite easing inflation and interest rate cuts. Kenya also experienced a 10% drop due to fuel costs, production challenges, and economic fallout from anti-finance bill protests in June. Morocco was highlighted as the fastest-growing market in North Africa, although it suffered a 24% plunge earlier in the year due to the raising of import taxes.
The average sales price of smartphones declined by 6% in Q3, as sub-US$100 smartphones surged by 35%, which “underscores affordability challenges across the region,” said Manish Pravinkumar, Senior Analyst at Canalys.
Market share
Chinese smartphone vendor Transsion dominated as market leader with a 50% market share, as shipments grew by 8% to 9.3 million units. Samsung’s shipments declined by 30% to 3.2 million units due to subdued demand in South Africa, giving it a market share of 18%. Meanwhile, Xiaomi secured third place with a 12% market share, up from 11% last year, as shipments increased annually by 13% to 2.2 million units.
Realme captured 6% market share, with shipments doubling to 1.1 million units in the third quarter. Finally, Oppo secured 5% market share with a 22% increase in shipments to 1 million units. Other smartphone vendors made up the remaining 9% of market share.
“The future of Africa’s smartphone market holds immense potential, but significant hurdles remain,” added Pravinkumar. “Feature phones maintained a 55% share of total shipments as of Q3 2024, limiting smartphone expansion. High device taxes continue to hinder growth, posing a dilemma for policymakers between immediate revenue needs and the long-term benefits of broader smartphone adoption. Enhanced smartphone accessibility could drive the development of a robust digital economy, generating sustainable tax revenues over time.”
Despite these barriers, growing demand for affordable devices, expanding 4G network coverage, and innovative financing models are expected to sustain growth. Canalys forecasts a 1% CAGR for the region from 2024 to 2028, with 4G remaining the primary driver of new mobile subscriptions over the next five years.
