The European Union’s decision to double its steel import tariffs to 50 percent has sent shockwaves through the global steel market, but Africa appears to have narrowly avoided the worst of the fallout.
While most African exporters are exempt from the new measures, the continent could still feel the impact as cheap, redirected steel from major producers floods regional markets, threatening to undercut domestic industries and slow industrial growth.
Under the proposal announced by Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič in Strasbourg, the bloc will slash tariff-free quotas by nearly half, cutting them to 18.3 million metric tonnes in a move designed to curb global overproduction and protect Europe’s struggling steel sector.
The European steel industry factsheet (Eurofer) states that any nation that supplies less than 3 percent of the EU’s total steel imports will be excluded from the new restrictions.
Also, the WTO Agreement on Safeguards provides that “imports from developing countries may be exempt from safeguard (tariff-rate quota) measures if that country’s exports of that product constitute less than 3 percent of total imports of the product, and if the collective share of all such exempted developing countries does not exceed 9 percent of total imports”
This offers relief for African exporters such as South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Algeria, and Tunisia. These countries collectively accounted for under 3 million tonnes of steel exports to Europe in 2024, far below the threshold for penalties.
For South Africa, however, the reprieve may be temporary. The EU remains its second-largest steel export destination, worth R20.3 billion last year, behind China at R25.4 billion. Industry leaders have urged the government to act swiftly to protect the domestic market, warning that shifts in global trade flows could expose local producers to intensified competition.
Europe’s protectionism could flood African markets
While the exemptions may shield African exporters in the short term, the broader impact could still be deeply felt across the continent. As Europe raises barriers, major steel producers from Asia and Latin America will likely redirect their excess supply toward emerging markets.
With Africa’s infrastructure boom and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) creating fresh demand, the region is poised to become an attractive dumping ground for cheap, surplus steel.
However, without coordinated policy responses, the EU’s protectionist turn could undermine Africa’s long-term industrial ambitions. This influx could undercut Africa’s growing domestic industries.
Countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, and Kenya have been investing heavily in local steel manufacturing to reduce import dependence and spur industrialization. Yet, these young industries remain vulnerable to price shocks and competition from lower-cost foreign producers.
