This projection was made in the AFC’s newly released “State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2025.” The report highlights that if existing and upcoming refineries operate at full capacity, Africa’s reliance on imported petroleum products could reduce drastically.
Dangote refinery and Nigeria’s strategic role
The Dangote Refinery in Nigeria is described as the most significant facility leading this transformation. Commissioned in May 2023, it is Africa’s largest oil refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 650,000 barrels.
Its scale positions it as a crucial tool for reshaping not just Nigeria’s, but the continent’s energy landscape. Alongside Dangote, the ongoing reactivation of Nigeria’s government owned refineries is also expected to play a significant role.
In 2023, 55% of Africa’s petroleum product demand was met through imports. But the AFC believes that if the continent’s full refining potential is realized, this figure could drop to just 10%.
Nigeria’s infrastructure, if effectively managed and upgraded, will therefore be essential to this reduction.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has also praised the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, calling it a “great phenomenon of our time” and a symbol of Nigeria’s industrial capacity and economic strength.
The investment imperative: brownfield and greenfield projects
To reach this potential, the AFC recommends a dual investment strategy. First, about $16 billion is needed to upgrade existing refineries, a move that would improve fuel quality and reduce imports. Second, greenfield projects, such as those in Nigeria and Angola, are key to meeting long-term demand and anchoring future energy independence.
These investments must also address challenges in transportation and distribution networks, including pipelines, railways, and port infrastructure. The report emphasizes that any new energy infrastructure must also be resilient enough to support future energy transitions.
While Nigeria leads with infrastructure like the Dangote Refinery, Angola is also named by the AFC as a rising hub. Both countries are expected to drive new investment and infrastructure across West and Central Africa, helping the continent achieve fuel security and reduce external dependency.
By focusing on both new developments and existing capacity, Nigeria and Angola are positioned to lead Africa’s path toward energy independence.
