Over half of financial advisors see a healthier stock market one year from now, while just over one-third see darker clouds ahead.
That will come with some volatility over that time frame, as only four out of 10 advisors see a “somewhat better” market over the next six months, while 33% expect a net decline. One quarter predicts no real change, despite a presidential election that promises continued chaos and heated rhetoric over the economy and national policies. When it comes to the stock market, most advisors don’t see the daily political mudslinging as having much of a long-term impact at all.
The Wealthmanagement.com Advisor Sentiment Index, a monthly poll of registered investment advisors on their views of the markets and the economy, saw advisors’ belief in the health of the stock market register at a score of 115 (a score of 100 reflects a completely neutral view.) For the stock market, that’s down five points from May’s reading, and well below the higher sentiment advisors registered in the first quarter of the year, when the index topped 122 for three months in a row.
At the same time, their faith in the health of the U.S. economy, after dropping earlier this year, saw a slight rebound. Nonetheless, a darker view permeates advisor sentiment over the near-term, with only 27% expecting an improvement over the next six months, while slightly more (31%) expect the health of the market to decline over that time period. Most expect little change.
But financial advisors tend to be optimists. Taking the one-year view, the outlook becomes brighter. Over half of advisors expect the economy to be healthy, with only 28% seeing a net decline in the economy.
Methodology, data collection and analysis by WealthManagement.com and Informa Engage. Methodology conforms to accepted marketing research methods, practices and procedures. Beginning in January 2024, WealthManagement.com began promoting a brief monthly survey to active users. Data will be collected within the final ten days of each month going forward, with a goal of at least 100 financial advisor respondents per month. Respondents are asked for their view on the economy and the stock markets both currently, in six months and in one year. Responses are weighted and used to create an index tied to a neutral value of 100. Over time, the ASI will provide directional sentiment of retail-facing financial advisors.
