Yields rise, stocks mixed after China rate puzzles: Markets wrap

Treasury yields advanced while stocks in Asia traded mixed as investors braced for a further market downturn on China’s woes and more policy tightening globally.

Yields climbed across tenors, bringing the 10-year’s back on its path toward the highest level since November 2007 and the 30-year’s near 2011 highs, as selloff in the Treasury market this month wiped out what was left of year-to-date gains.

Wary investors are facing entrenched inflation and the prospect of more policy tightening ahead of the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, event later this week. Their concerns were amplified by China’s disappointing loan-rates data that weighed on broader Asian equities.

Chinese lenders cut the one-year loan prime rate by 10 basis points and kept the five-year prime loan rates unchanged even after policymakers called for more lending. Traders had expected a 15-basis-point cut on both rates.

The Hang Seng Index declined as much as 1.8% and shares in mainland China dropped into a second day. Gauges in Japan and South Korea gained, but their advances may not prevent an Asian equity benchmark heading to its lowest level since March. Contracts for European and US equities were mostly steady.

Renewed property contagion concerns led Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to lower its full-year earnings-per-share growth estimate for MSCI China to 11% from 14%. It also reduced its 12-month index target from 70 to 67, implying 13% returns over the next 12 months.

“Until more forceful policy responses are made available to backstop the contagion risk, we believe Chinese stocks will settle in a lower trading range than we previously envisaged,” Goldman equity strategists, including Kinger Lau and Timothy Moe, wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, the offshore yuan fell against the greenback. The People’s Bank of China had earlier set the daily reference rate for the yuan at a level stronger than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

A gauge of dollar strength traded little changed, following small losses Thursday and Friday that trimmed its five weeks of gains.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to strike “a more balanced tone in Wyoming, hinting at the tightening cycle’s end while underscoring the need to hold rates higher for longer,” according to Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics.

In another sign of nervousness, the Cboe Volatility Index climbed above 18 intraday on Friday, touching the highest level since May. Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett warned that stocks may drop another 4%, given China’s economic turmoil and the jump in bond yields.

Elsewhere, oil rose after suffering from its first weekly loss since June and gold ticked higher.

Key events this week:

US existing home sales, Tuesday
Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee speaks, Tuesday
Eurozone S&P Global Services & Manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, Wednesday
UK S&P Global / CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI, Wednesday
US new home sales, S&P Global Manufacturing PM, Wednesday
US initial jobless claims, durable goods, Thursday
Kansas City Fed’s annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole begins, Thursday
Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde to address Jackson Hole conference, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:28 a.m. London time. The S&P 500 was little changed Friday
Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.1%
Japan’s Topix rose 0.3%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.3%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.5%
The Shanghai Composite fell 0.5%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed