It’s been less than a month since Lionel Messi debuted for Inter Miami, but he’s already on the verge of his first trophy with the team. Messi and Miami are favored in the Leagues Cup final against Nashville on Saturday.
Nashville is hosting the final, but the rebuilt and suddenly loaded Miami team is -185 (20-to-37) on BetMGM to lift the trophy. Nashville is +130 (13-to-10). Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET.
| Team | To lift trophy | Regular time win | Goal total |
|---|---|---|---|
|
+130 |
+230 |
Over 2.5 (-165) |
|
|
-185 |
+100 |
Under 2.5 (+120) |
Messi and Miami have been dominant in this tournament. Messi has scored in all six matches he has played, racking up nine goals. Miami has won four of its six matches in the tournament by multiple goals, including Tuesday’s 4-1 semifinal win at Philadelphia.
The two close matches were the opener against Cruz Azul, when Messi came off the bench and scored the game-winning goal on a free kick in the 94th minute, and a wild Round of 16 match at Dallas that was 4-4 after 90 minutes. Miami won in Dallas on penalties, but not before Messi scored twice and was involved in the play in the other two Miami goals.
With nine goals, Messi is virtually assured of being the top scorer in the competition. He is two goals ahead of Minnesota’s Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Minnesota is already out of the tournament. Nashville’s top scorer is Sam Surridge with three goals, including one in the semifinal victory against Monterrey.
Nashville won 2-0 against the Mexican side and endured a controversial video review call that took away a pretty goal from Hany Mukhtar in the first half. Nashville’s road to the final has been far bumpier than Miami’s.
What could have been… ????
A beauty from Hany is disallowed after Video Review. #LeaguesCup2023 pic.twitter.com/7lvXQOuwLH
— Major League Soccer (@MLS) August 16, 2023
Nashville lost a group stage match to Toluca and needed penalties in its first two knockout matches before blowing away Minnesota 5-0 in a quarterfinal. This will be Nashville’s fourth straight home match.
The 4-1 win in Philadelphia showed Miami’s traveling circus can emphatically get it done on the road. Josef Martinez scored early and Messi made it 2-0 with a perfectly-placed long-distance strike that stunned the home crowd. Philadelphia created some chances in the second half, but the match was essentially over before halftime when Jordi Alba scored to make it 3-0. Alba had two assists in the win at Dallas, but this was his first goal with his new team.
Both teams have already qualified for the 2024 CONCACAF Champions Cup by making this final, which means Messi is set to play in continental competition again after winning the UEFA Champions League four times in his career.
The newly reformatted Leagues Cup caused a break in the MLS regular season. Messi’s debut in a regular season MLS match will have to wait a bit longer. Miami was scheduled to play Charlotte on Aug. 20, but that match has been postponed due to Miami making this final.
Miami goes to Cincinnati on Wednesday, Aug. 23. Cincinnati has 51 points, most in the league and Miami has 18, least in the league. Despite that, Miami will likely be favored after this dominant run from Messi and Co.
Before Messi signed, Miami was +15000 (150-to-1) to win MLS Cup this year. After his signing and this dominant run, the Herons are now third in the MLS Cup futures market at +700 (7-to-1). Meanwhile, Cincinnati is the MLS Cup favorite at +400 (4-to-1). Miami’s odds have unsurprisingly been dropping quickly, per BetMGM:
- Before Messi’s first game: +3300
- Before Messi’s second game: +2500
- Before Messi’s third game: +1200
- Currently: +700
To get into the playoffs, Miami would have to get up to ninth in the 15-team Eastern Conference. Miami has 12 regular-season matches left and is 12 points behind ninth place. Just getting to the playoffs would be an impressive feat. Inter Miami is also in the U.S. Open Cup semifinals, meaning Messi has a good chance to win two trophies with his new team, even if MLS Cup remains a longshot (despite with the betting market says).
(Photo credit: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
